Giants 2015 Top 10 Prospects

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Giants 2015 Top 10 Prospects

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As you can tell by my posting activity, I'm doing a bunch of housekeeping, which means I'm procrastinating on something more productive!

#1 Rafael Devers 3B Red Sox - My second round pick last year on the strength of his Robinson Cano offensive comps, and he did nothing as a rookie to dispel them, first putting up ridiculous video game numbers in the DSL while waiting for his visa then putting up a 146 OPS+ in the GCL as the second youngest player in the league. Had some minor injury issues during instructs so most likely the Red Sox hold him back into XST and send him to the NYPL instead of being aggressive with full season promotion, but man am I excited to see where he goes.
(BA Red Sox #6)

#2 Roberto Baldoquin SS Angels - Perhaps he was an overdraft, but I still love Baldoquin and I am very excited to see what he does the Cal league this year. I expect he'll be a very good major league shortsop for a long time, and at the very least I hope he'll be better than Trea Turner!
(BA Angels #8)

#3 Max Pentecost C Blue Jays - Not a ton to say about Pentecost beyond what has already been said, higher risk given some injuries and everything but when Buster moves to 3B he should be ready to step in and be a solid contributer.
(BA Blue Jays #6)

#4 Monte Harrison OF Brewers - You guys know I love to jump on the tools bandwagon, and I seriously considered naming him my #2 prospect, but we're going to cool our jets just a little bit and see what he does with a full offseason. I'm posting this on National Signing Day when Nebraska was expecting to see him put a red hat on, so it's pretty cool to see him wearing an imaginary orange and black one instead.
(BA Brewers #5)

#5 Chris Anderson RHP Dodgers - My first rounder last year, he was just OK in his full season debut, but it was at High A and it was the Cal league, so the fact that he didn't humiliate himself is a big deal, especially coming from a small college. The strikeout totals were good, the walks were bad, and he's got a pretty big year coming up in AA to see if he's really a mid rotation guy with #2 upside or if he's sliding back into the bullpen.
(BA Dodgers #7)

#6 Wei Chung Wang LHP Brewers - You might remember this guy jumping all the way from rookie ball to some really bad MLB performances post Rule V draft last year. What you might not remember is that the Brewers were able to find some minor "injury" and send him down to the minors for 6 starts, where he posted a 2.33 ERA and a 22-4 K/BB ratio in 27 innings. Rule V BS resolved he should start the year in High A with a chance for a quick promotion to AA (there are rumors he'll start there regardless). Still has mid-rotation upside and is still just 22, could be a quick mover.
(BA Brewers #7)

#7 Justus Sheffield LHP Indians - He'd be higher if he wasn't facing jail time. D'oh!
(BA Indians #4)

#8 Michael Kopech RHP Red Sox - Obviously I'm buying the Kevin Brown comp, I think they'll clean up his delivery and he'll be well on his way to superstardom. Highest potential outcome variance of any pitcher in the system, I think he has the most upside but is also the most likely to flame out.

#9 Alex Blandino 2B Reds - Of course I took the Stanford guy, as discussed in the draft writeup. I think I might be underrating him here, but you all know I'm more interested in ceiling than floor as a general rule.

#10 Anthony Alford CF Blue Jays - Wild card bitches! Do you guys realize that he quit football and he's going to play baseball fulltime this year? He's still a crazy athlete, and he's still not legally allowed to drink! He spent the winter in Australia and he didn't suck, though he wasn't good either, as he just gets used to playing baseball full time again. Hopefully we'll see him get some run as the every day CF in the Midwest League, and he can get a chance to shoot off some serious fireworks on his way up the system.

Other guys you might not know about in no particular order

Marcus Greene Jr. C Rangers - Can someone who follows the Rangers guys more explain to me why this guy isn't a prospect? At 19 in his first post draft season the 2013 13th rounder broke out with a .912 OPS and almost as many walks as strikeouts in the NWL. Yeah he was repeating the league, because the Rangers liked him enough to send him there the year before as an 18 year old! The plate discipline followed in a 39 AB stint at Hickory, and from everything I read he can actually play catcher. Seriously what am I missing?

Mikey Edie CF Giants - First of all, he goes by Mikey.That's pretty sweet. Edie was a July 2 signing in 2013 with rumors of 5 tool talent. Obviously the Giants track record with Dominicans isn't great (see Villalona, Angel), and DSL stats should never be taken that seriously, but the kid posted a .424 OBP, that's not nothing, and he won't even turn 18 until July. Not some one I'd ever trade because of the whole Giants thing, but I want to plant this flag so that when he's putting up McCutchen like numbers in 5 years there will be some evidence I was on it!

Jason Garcia RHP Orioles - I've been pretty good at collecting Rule 5 relievers over the years (Soria, Joe Paterson who gave me a great couple of sim freak years, Rondon, hopefully Wang) and this is the guy this year. I'm buying based on Kiley McDaniel, quoted below
11. Jason Garcia, RHP: I wrote up Garcia as a 40 on the Red Sox list and he’s now a group higher after Baltimore took him in the Rule 5 draft. Going in the Rule 5 Draft means that for Baltimore to keep Garcia, they have to keep him on the big league roster for the whole season, despite his 2013 Tommy John surgery and his highest experience so far coming in Low-A. You may be asking why he moved up to a 45 FV despite not appearing in any games since I wrote the Red Sox list. I wrote something about this in general today, but there’s a fascinating story behind how Baltimore decided to pick Garcia and why he’s higher on the list now.

First the scouting report, which is pretty much the same from the Red Sox list: Garcia works 95-96, hitting 98 mph in multi-inning outings, working a tick higher and hitting 99 or 100 mph when he knows it’ll be a shorter outing. His slider flashes plus but is still inconsistent and more often average to above. Garcia mixes in a changeup to lefties that flashes solid average, but he doesn’t throw it much. If you think the stuff sounds like that of a starter, then you’re onto something because that’s what Garcia used to be and he worked 91-95 mph. Then he had Tommy John surgery, came back late in 2014 hitting 97 mph in shorter stints, then spiked another couple notches in instructs this fall.

The velo spike occurring in instructs is the key part of this story. The Red Sox camp is in Ft. Myers, FL along with the Twins, with the Rays in Port Charlotte and Orioles in Sarasota: the four clubs that play each other in instructs in a “pod” in southwest Florida to save on travel time/cost. Most teams had one report saying Garcia was a new kind of pitcher, but at best had an inning or two from one look from one scout. That’s hardly enough to base a Rule 5 pick on unless it happened to be a top scout, who rarely do instructs coverage.

The Orioles have a video system in Sarasota that logs every game at their stadium and when it came time to discuss Garcia for the Rule 5 Draft, they realized they had video of six innings of Garcia from instructs. In those six innings (where he recorded 18 outs), Garcia had 14 strikeouts and a 15th where the batter reached on a dropped third strike, along with a popup, fly out and two groundouts. Orioles execs concede they wouldn’t have been able to make the case to pick Garcia without this video, which included Garcia striking out multiple high level Orioles prospects, like Chance Sisco.

So, if Garcia pitched for any team other than the Rays, Twins or Red Sox, the Orioles couldn’t have picked him, since it would’ve just been a scout or two on short looks with no video. That’s what the Red Sox were counting on and why they didn’t push him much to me for their prospect list even after admitting he hit 100 mph, likely knowing they had a chance to sneak him through the Rule 5 Draft if the buzz was limited to a simmer.

I talked to two scouts that saw Garcia in instructs and they really liked him, but they similarly couldn’t have much conviction on a short look. Stats from instructs are private, so no one other than Boston was able to piece together what Garcia was doing. While the plan seems clever, one scout questioned why Boston would try to sneak Garcia through to save a 40-man spot and then use that spot on Dan Butler.

The Red Sox figured they could delay putting Garcia on the roster for another year since no team would have enough info or conviction to pull the trigger. The Orioles lucked out that the Red Sox happened to pitch Garcia for six innings in their stadium when the cameras were running. The Orioles traded up to the 4th pick in December’s Rule 5 Draft to make sure they got Garcia and the O’s office and field staff are all-in on this guy, with a good chance he sticks in the big leagues, likely facing his former team not long into the 2015 season.
David Denson 1B Brewers - Had the dreaded hamate fracture, which is known to sap power from power hitters temporarily, but he did hold his own with the OBP (something you always look for from the high school slugger), and oh yeah he hit a 500 foot home run with a wood bat his draft year at a showcase. Someone to watch jump up the charts this year with the wrist injury further and further behind him.
Your REIGNING AND DEFENDING #evenyear IBC CHAMPION

2015- #torture #evenyears 179-145
2006-2014 Gritty Gutty A's 828-631
2005 Texas Rangers 65-97
Total: 1072-873 .551
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Post by Giants »

Like I said, maybe Baldoquin was an overdraft, but the early returns are pretty good

http://www.halosheaven.com/2015/3/27/83 ... -spring-ab
Your REIGNING AND DEFENDING #evenyear IBC CHAMPION

2015- #torture #evenyears 179-145
2006-2014 Gritty Gutty A's 828-631
2005 Texas Rangers 65-97
Total: 1072-873 .551
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