Jake's 2014 Arbitary Spring Training Preview - AL Central

Giants · Post by **Giants** » Mon Feb 17, 2014 12:10 am

I learned my lesson last year, we're starting early to make sure I actually finish all of these. I know there's like 6 weeks to the season, so if you make any trades between now and Opening Day I arbitrarily do not care and will stand by these predictions. Given that the AL Central got screwed last year you guys are getting the treatment first, so stop bugging me about it Pat! As always, if you posted a lineup I'll use it, if not I'll just guess and it's your own damn fault if I'm wrong. Also this year I'm finishing the preview by calling a shot about where I think a team will finish, either as a WS contender, in the hunt, or where I think they're draft pick will be. Reserve the right to change these projections as I go through the league.

Indians

Strengths
Not sure if you guys remember this, but this whole experiment started because we brought in some weirdo named Kelly to run the Indians and he promptly stuffed his team with DHs (go back and check the record, he had Giambi, Thome, and Frank Thomas along with soon to be DH Troy Glaus, of course I ended up trading for Frank Thomas twice so what do I know). I also remember someone saying beware of discounting Kelly Burke. Anyway, not to toot my own horn but that whole thing didn't end up working out so good, and now Danny has gamely stepped up to clean up the mess. As you might expect, given that he took over a team with no stars and no top prospects, Danny has focused on rebuilding for the future. As far as this season goes, Tyson Ross is someone I'll always have a soft spot for, Junior Lake looks the part, Leonys Martin plays nice defense, umm... that's about all there is to say.

Weaknesses
Prospects are cool and all, but this is about this season, which looks pretty bad. Biggest weaknesses of this team are hitting, defense, and pitching.

Bottom Line
Danny may actually put in a good challenge to Z for Carlos Rodon, and his biggest challenge will be maintaining a full roster to actually play the games.

Royals[/i]
Strengths
Second base. There are 3 second basemen according to Steamer (is the Zips spreadsheet downloadable yet? Haven't found it but also haven't looked...) who are projected a both an above average WOBA and more than a run of defensive value. Jason has 2 of them. Given how weak that position is around the league I find that mindblowing. Top to bottom this is a pretty strong lineup, obviously counting on guys like Reyes and Beltran to stay healthy, but top to bottom this might be a top 5 lineup in the IBC. Sonny Gray looks like a star in the making.

Weaknesses
No way around it, that Iwakuma injury really hurts. Combined with CC and Nova getting relatively mediocre projections, the rotation doesn't really have the horses to be elite if Iwakuma can't come back quickly, those finger injuries can be weird. The bullpen is relatively meh, and these Royals could use a better backstop for the rotation.

Bottom Line
Could this be the year that Jason stops knocking on the door and blasts through it? Assuming health this team should score a lot of runs and be really competitive. All eyes will be watching Iwakuma

Tigers[/i]
Strengths
Pat G. has done a hell of a job rebuilding this team. Top to bottom the lineup is strong, perhaps not with all the pop of the Royals but with no apparent weaknesses and a stronger bench in case someone gets hurt. 3-6 of Goldy, Beltre, Heyward, Desmond is as strong as anyone in the league. The rotation fronted by Cole Hamels and Anibal Sanchez is strong (Pat remember when I was bitching that the Sanchez trade was a total steal and you told me he was just a nice mid-rotation piece?), and there is decent depth as well.

Weaknesses
The bullpen could be the Achilles heel, as the best reliever is looking the Beard, who is a total traitor and not someone you can ever trust in any kind of important situation anymore. Seriously, fuck that guy. Also, incidentally, fuck James Harden for trying to appropriate the "Fear the Beard" moniker, go get your own gimmick. That bothers me almost as much as LaDanian Tomlinson going by LT.

Bottom Line
The Tigers have to be the favorite in this division and have a decent shot at being a World Series contender, which would make them the first team to win two World Series titles with two different GMs (the year after Brett P. became the first GM to win two titles with two different teams). That being said, go check out his trade record, since Pat has returned to the league he may have stolen all of JB's voodoo, and I think there should be an investigation.

Twins[/i]
Strengths
Does this team have anyone else besides Byron Buxton? That seems to be the only guy Andrew ever mentions on his team. The strength of this team's Major League players is still Madison Bumgarner, and I'm still bitter that whoever was running the Astros in 2008 (pretty sure that was still you Ken) chose Andrew's trade package based around Chad Billingsley over mine based around Dan Haren, even though I did end up getting Buster Posey out of the deal. Teheran and Matt Harrison (if he's ever healthy again) make a nice rotation behind Bumgarner, and Kenley Jansen should bring back some kind of awesome trade piece later in the season. Jason Castro is a nice young catcher and Jonathan Singleton should be a nice complement in the heart of the order if he can hold off my man the 300 lb Expansive Lover

Weaknesses
The two best hitters on this team are also possibly the two best hitters on the Astros. You should not be trying to emulate the Astros in your lineup. The Twins are a team in transition, so obviously not much in the rest of the lineup or in the bullpen either.

Bottom Line
I'm going to use this space as a request rather than a comment, Andrew I think the best power rankings any of us have ever done were the ones you did giving each team a Roman emperor a bunch of years ago (which popped back into my head because you gave me Elagabalus, whose temple I stumbled upon on my first visit to Rome two summers ago, and I knew exactly who that was thanks to those power rankings). Since this team won't be a factor this season can your contribution to the league be more classically inspired power rankings? Thank you.

White Sox[/i]
Strengths
Second base. Kinda. Really cool found money to get that projection out of Rosell Herrera, I wonder who Jim would have taken if he hadn't thought he needed Guerrero (second base sucks). Another team in transition, looks like Jim does not want to finish at .500 again this year as he moved guys like Headley, Quentin, Chris Carter, and Corey Hart for prospects turning an above average lineup into a below average one. The bullpen is probably the most solid unit on this roster. I'm not pleased you grabbed Josh Osich under the radar, I didn't even notice and went to sign him when Mulder got hurt, but there he was already on your roster. Jerk.

Weaknesses
Lineup and rotation, which looks to be by design. I and a few other contenders will probably have our eyes on Alfonso Soriano's platoon splits to see if he's going to be worth riding off into the sunset for yet another prospect into Jim's newly revamped system.

Bottom Line
Historically (at least in my perception) Jim has been very good at adding prospect talent via the draft and not had the results he expected at the MLB level by cashing in those prospects, so I'm intrigued by watching him pull the plug and reset now that his division has become more competitive. I was really stunned when he jumped on Jordan Paroubeck, I was sure that guy would comfortably be my 3rd round pick. Point being, this team has a bunch of young guys I like, and I'd love to see them develop in a couple of years for Jim. Won't be this year though.

Projected Standings
1. Detroit Tigers - WS Contender
2. Kansas City Royals - In the hunt
--
3. Chicago White Sox - Top 15 pick
4. Minnesota Twins - Top 10 Pick
5. Cleveland Indians - Top 3 Pick

Giants · Post by **Giants** » Mon Feb 17, 2014 12:14 am

Update:

Jason clearly read this projections and immediately moved to shore up his rotation. I accept credit for that move. Enough questions about Buchholz' health that I can't bump the Royals up that much more, but I do like the move.

Reds · Post by **Reds** » Mon Feb 17, 2014 7:20 am

It wasn't me in the deal you mentioned in the Twins write up. I never had Bumgarner and I think I was the Marlins in 08.

Astros · Post by **Astros** » Mon Feb 17, 2014 7:20 am

I'll second Jake's request for another classical power rankings at some point. I taught about Diocletian this year just because of those power rankings

Nationals · Post by **Nationals** » Mon Feb 17, 2014 12:48 pm

Two things:

--I don't have Buxton. Never did, probably never will.

--It must say something that my power rankings from 8 (yes, EIGHT) years ago are still remembered.

--And the guy who you should be cursing for trading Bumgarner for Billingsley is the departed Shawn L[ape?].

Okay, that was three things. And, for good measure, top ten pick, my ass.

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Guardians · Post by **Guardians** » Mon Feb 17, 2014 2:19 pm

Are Jake's previews the kiss of death like the Madden Curse? Hope not. And with JP having Davis and Pujols pinch hitting, I'm not sure "WS contender" means much. But good writeup nonetheless.

Giants · Post by **Giants** » Mon Feb 17, 2014 4:20 pm

Andrew you're right on both counts, had my wires crossed with Ropers constantly posting about Buxton and him being on the Twins in real life, and yeah, sorry to impugn you Ken, screw that other Shawn guy. Should have gone with my gut on the other meaningless anecdote I was going to use rather than talking about Buxton, but we'll have to save that for another time. Meanwhile see you in the top 10!

Tigers · Post by **Tigers** » Mon Feb 17, 2014 4:45 pm

Athletics wrote:Andrew you're right on both counts, had my wires crossed with Ropers constantly posting about Buxton and him being on the Twins in real life, ......

Jake,

Given the "in your face" advertising and prospect pimping that goes on by a number of teams in the IBC, I don't think it is very fair to call my once a quarter posting of the latest and greatest Buxton article to my blog "constant" anything.

Matter of fact, if I was taking a "Gorrilla Marketing" class along with Z, Ken and Jagger and they graded on a curve, I would clearly be the one staring at the big red "F" on my report card at the end of the semister.

If you don't like reading about Buxton once a quarter, I could always post some tid bits on someone like Crick or Heaney?

Just say'n.

Giants · Post by **Giants** » Mon Feb 17, 2014 5:02 pm

Those guys suck. What kind of idiot would have drafted them?

If real life Buster Posey's sitdown meeting with real life Pablo Sandoval was anywhere near as impactful as the IBC equivalent I think we're both gonna end up happy with that trade. My favorite part of this story is Panda saying his weight loss proves he's grown up while sporting a bleached version of the Mr. T mohawk...

Cardinals · Post by **Cardinals** » Mon Feb 17, 2014 5:21 pm

Buxton is good. Ropers you should trade him to me so I have more reason to take the trip to New Britain to see him play, since the 20 minute drive is daunting.

Tigers · Post by **Tigers** » Mon Feb 17, 2014 5:31 pm

Pirates wrote:Buxton is good. Ropers you should trade him to me so I have more reason to take the trip to New Britain to see him play, since the 20 minute drive is daunting.

JP, I would trade him to you, however Buxton would be overshadowed by all that talent on your roster. He would just get lost in the suffle......

.......in Seattle he doesn't have to worry about that.