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Re: Trades

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Nationals traded Robinson Chirinos, Andrew Chafin, Nick Ahmed to Rockies for Orlando Arcia, Jacob Nottingham

Ahmed is the key to this deal for Nate. He's still only 29, and is an absolute starting caliber SS who comes with an EX rating. Chafin is a very good LH reliever and Chirinos is one of the most underrated C's around, but is hitting the back end of his career.

Nottingham was a helium prospect until hitting AA in 2016 & 2017. He was awful for two full seasons before moving to the Brewers and getting promoted to AAA. He's working on back-to-back excellent seasons in AAA, has improved his defense, and has held his own in two call-ups to the MLB level. He's probably a backup, but he's still only 24 and will probably get a shot at a starting gig at some point. Arcia was the get for me. He's a former consensus top 10 prospect before breaking in to the MLB with a strong first season. To say he bottomed out last year would be an understatement. He was awful at the MLB level, though was terrific back down in AAA and in the winter league. He's been significantly better this season, and, most importantly, he's still only 24. There's an MLB caliber SS there if he stays where he is...and the top 10 upside is still there.
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Nationals traded Max Kepler, Dakota Hudson, David Bote to WhiteSox for Bobby Bradley, Colton Welker, Kyle Wright, Daniel 18-Lynch

Welp, if my direction wasn't clear before, it certainly is now. Kepler is a VG cf who's in the midst of a breakout year offensively at only 26 years old. There's certainly mixed feelings if this is a true breakout, but the ceiling is way too good for Jim to pass up. Hudson is a non-sexy mid-rotation starter who's still young and has outperformed his peripherals. He's still young, so he should mature nicely. Bote is a 26 year old versatile fielder with a solidly pro bat who has forced his way into the lineup in Chicago with some consistency.

There just isn't enough mid-level talent to get my team where it needs to go. That's become clear in aggressively shopping my prospects. So a return that includes three consensus top 100 prospects, as well as a big, big MLB ready bat. Bradley is the only non-Top 100 prospect, but he's also mashed 24 homers in AAA at only 23 and saw his first MLB at-bats. He's going to be an impact bat, maybe more if he can curb the strikeouts. Welker is a 21 year old who's already reached, and is holding his own in AA, while being a consensus top 100 prospect. He's a legit 3b, who makes consistently hard contact and is starting to tap into his power. He's lined up with a full MLB debut at about the time that Arenado's contract comes up. The two pitchers are the most exciting, though. Daniel Lynch was a late first round pick who has absolutely exploded in his first two years in the pros. A lefty armed with legitimate 3 plus pitches, Lynch has rocketed up prospect charts with his performances all the way up to HA. He hit an injury snag right before he was considered to be promoted again to AA, but he's resumed throwing and should be back on the hill soon. Then there's Kyle Wright. Wright has legitimate top of the rotation stuff and has pushed himself all the way to AAA this season, while also making his pro debut. He's struggled at times this year, but he's still considered one of the top arms in all of baseball. His control has come around at AAA, but he still need to work on his command. At 23, he's got plenty of time.
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Nationals traded Lucas Giolito, Cal 18-Raleigh to Astros for Drew 17-Waters, Joey 18-Bart

I believe that Giolito is an ace. He's 24, was a top prospect who faced adversity, and seems to have come on the other side even better. He's been a little inconsistent this year, but he's very real and very good. Cal Raleigh is most likely a backup C, but there's definitely a 1st-division starter in there if it all comes together. He's a typical catching prospect.

Joey Bart is not a typical catching prospect. The #1 catching prospect in the game, Bart's bat was always a carrying tool (all contact, power, and discipline), but he demonstrated last year that he will be a full-time C moving forward led by a very strong throwing arm. He's a pretty consensus top 20 prospect in the game. I've asked Jake for Waters almost every day since I changed direction. He can be a plus fielder at all three OF positions, and is a terrific switch hitter from both sides of the plate. He's blown up prospect charts in both of his professional seasons, and has raked in AA as a 20-year old this year. The power is the only skill that isn't readily apparent, with only 5 homers, but he's already knocked 42 ebh's in 332 ab's...so it's coming.
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Re: Trades

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Angels traded TJ 16-Zeuch, Angels Draft Pick 4 to Nationals for Dan Jennings, Nationals Draft Pick 4

Dan Jennings has a good SIM and a good track record for SIMing well. Stephen also gets like 15 picks better in the 4th round.

Zeuch is a former first round pick who has already made it to AAA. He almost never strikes people out, but has a good track record of getting people out throughout his MiLB career. He’s most likely a reliever, where his stuff will play up...but he’s close, and the Jays will give him a shot to see if he can get MLB hitters out as a starter.
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Rangers traded Jesus Sanchez, Adrian 0-Morejon to Nationals for Lance McCullers

Lance McCullers, though injured, has every ability to be an ace. There's some worry he may be a bullpen arm long-term, but he's already proven himself as a starter and he'll get every attempt to work his way back to ace status. And the SIM LOVES him.

In return I get two players I'm really high on. Jesus Sanchez is a young, dynamic OF. He's going to be an above average RF with the hit and power tools to play in the middle of the lineup. He's 21 and holding his own at AA. He's not far off. Adrian Morejon is a 20-year old who's pitched his way to AA. The team is taking is taking it slowly with him from an innings standpoint, but he has absolutely dynamic stuff. He has three above average pitches, and, if his command/control keep turning, he has every ability to pitch at the top of a rotation.
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Nationals traded Jacob Nottingham, Jason 16-Groome, Kyle Wright, Angels Draft Pick 4 to Mets for Alex 18-Bohm, Mets Draft Pick 3

I've given myself a lot of room in this trade to lose it. Kyle Wright is a top tier MiLB arm who's already reached the majors. He's very real and he could be very good. Nottingham has also gained MLB ab's this year and looks to be, at the very least, a backup C. He's a starter if the power comes through. Jay Groome shoots up prospect charts the moment he takes the mound again. His raw stuff is a Top 100 prospect when healthy.

In the deal, I move up 40ish spots...which is nice. I also get a player I really coveted in Bohm. He's finding his way at 3b, though he may never be good, but the dude can straight up rake. He's ran through A, HA, and AA so far this season with a .940 ops combined. He has a solid hit tool, developing power, and very good pitch recognition. He's an MLB bat...and he'll be an impact player at any corner, but he's an all-star if he stays at 3b.
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Nationals traded Miguel Andujar, Seth 18-Beer to Royals for Adonis Medina, Royals Draft Pick 1, Royals Draft Pick 3, Royals Draft Pick 4

Miguel Andujar may struggle to find his spot on the field, but he's going to be given every chance to be a 3b and I fully believe the dude's going to rake when he gets back from injury. He has innate barrel-to-ball ability. Beer doesn't have that natural hitting gene, but the dude is a monster with the bat. He hit in college, and he's hit all the way to AA as a 22-year old. If I was an AL team, I'd want to have him around. I'm not. It's going to be tough for him to stay on the field. That said, I gave away two guys who can absolutely flat rake.

In return I picked up a pick that will be middle-early back of the 1st round, and those same picks in the 3rd/4th. The player I targeted in the trade was Medina. While a borderline Top 100 guy, no one doubts the stuff when he's locked in. It's a top of the rotation three-pitch mix when it's on, but he's generally effective even when the command hasn't shown up...like in AA this year. He's a no doubt starter and, once it clicks in, an easy mid-rotation beast with upside.
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Re: Trades

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Nationals traded Tony Wolters to Phillies for James McCann, Phillies Draft Pick 3

Twins traded Twins Draft Pick 3 to Nationals for James McCann, Nationals Draft Pick 5


Tony Wolters is only 27, has a great arm, and can get on base.

I wanted a 2nd rounder for him. I got 2 3rd's. I'm pleased.
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Cubs traded Cubs Draft Pick 3 to Nationals for Chris Martin

Chris Martin got a good SIM and is having a heck of a year for the Rangers. He's 33, but easily having the best year of his career. The SIM likes him, so as long as he doesn't implode, he'll be a real asset next year, too.

I now own 20% of the 3rd round.
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Nationals traded Clint Frazier, Lane Thomas, Phillies Draft Pick 3, Twins Draft Pick 3 to Indians for Jasrado 15-Chisholm, Adam Haseley

It's tough to trade Frazier. He's young with a dynamic bat and the SIM likes his defense than real life does. He's going to be a middle of the order hitter for years to come. Lane Thomas is a fun player in the Cards system who's most likely a 4th OF, but can be more if the power plays up like it did last year. The picks are pretty good in what should be a decently deep draft.

I'm really excited about the return. Adam Haseley is a genuinely underrated prospect. He was a first rounder just two years ago, and he's hit at every level...all the way up to debuting at the MLB level this season. His floor is high as a CF, which is really exciting. That will make this deal a loss...but with a return. The way this deal explodes is Chisholm. There are few players in the minors that have true #1 prospect status ability, and he's one of them. He's a terrific athlete with incredible pop from the left side. He led all SS's in HR's last year, and is on-pace to replicate those power numbers as a 21-year old in AA. He's also has true plus potential at short. The problem is that he strikes out. A lot. Like a lot, a lot. He's still very young for the level and is absolutely holding his own. He's got time to make it all connect, and, if he does, he could be absolutely dynamic.
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Re: Trades

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Marlins traded Rangers Draft Pick 4 to Nationals for Jonathan Holder

Holder is a good young reliever who's having a genuinely terrible season.

I got a 4th round pick!
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Nationals traded Orlando Arcia, Bryan Reynolds, Joey 18-Bart, Cubs Draft Pick 3, Nationals Draft Pick 2 to Giants for Monte Harrison, Carter Kieboom, Tommy Edman

Arcia is a potential starting SS. He was a top prospect and he's held his own at 24. Reynolds is straight raking. His BABIP is crazy...but the dude can just hit. And Joey Bart is almost universally one of the top 20 prospects in the game. And the #1 or #2 C.

First off, Tommy Edman has been terrific at the MLB level after being off the charts great at the AAA level. Love his versatility. Monte Harrison is a borderline top 100 prospect who is a real CF. The dude in this deal is Kieboom. He's about as real a bat as it gets, and I'm thrilled to add his bat a lineup with Bichette.
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Re: Trades

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Phillies traded Jeremy 18-Eierman, Phillies Draft Pick 1, Phillies Draft Pick 2 to Nationals for Matt Beaty, Adam Haseley, Royals Draft Pick 4

Beaty and Haseley can hit. And they're both kind of doing it at the MLB level. Then I gave up a 4th round pick.

Eierman is a highly thought of prospect who won't actually do anything yet. Then I got two good picks.
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Re: Trades

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Nationals traded Phillies Draft Pick 1, Rangers Draft Pick 4 to Yankees for Jake Rogers, Yankees Draft Pick 2

I gave up two picks. One in the first round.

As much as I was fine sacrificing Bart & Reynolds for Kieboom & Harrison, my catching prospects were pretty far away. Rogers is almost unanimously one of the top 10 catching prospects in the game, is also almost unanimously the best fielding catcher in the minors, and the dude can hit a homer and take a walk. He has a very high floor, and, if he can replicate his MiLB numbers, a really high ceiling, too.
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Royals traded Grayson 18-Rodriguez to Nationals for Jordan 18-Groshans, Phillies Draft Pick 2

Ian got a good deal here. Groshans is an awesome prospect who was absolutely blowing up before he hurt his foot, and he got a 2nd round pick. That's a lot.

I got the pitcher version of Groshans. Rodriguez has been flying up the prospect charts this year with a terrific year in full season ball as a 19-year old. He has premium stuff with a huge, athletic build. He's going to be a workhorse with the potential to pitch at the top of a rotation.
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Rangers traded DShawn 17-Knowles, Mike Brosseau to Nationals for Royals Draft Pick 3, Yankees Draft Pick 2

I have a ton of 18's going into next year and two 1st's I'm clearly going to use...so the picks could go, but they needed to go for 2 people I'd hold on to for sure.

I got those in Brosseau and Knowles. Knowles is a dynamic athlete who has a solid approach as a switch hitter. He's only 18 and he's found success domestically. He's got the speed for center and the arm for right, and the kid can hit. He'll be fun to follow. Brosseau has done two things as a professional: hit and play a lot of positions. I love both of those things. In 2019 he's played 1b/2b/ss/3b/lf/rf and has raked in AAA & the majors. He's only 25. He'll be a fun player to continue to track.
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Reds traded Nick Solak, Reds Draft Pick 4 to Nationals for Phil Ervin, Nick Neidert, J.B. Wendelken

Ervin is a solid player who may be a 4th of/platoon bat when he's at his best. Wendelken is having a rough year on straightforward stats, but the peripherals tell a better story and the SIM likes him. I like Neidert a lot, and think he's a little undervalued as a prospect currently...but I also had 19 sp's heading into this deal, which I'm pretty sure won't all fit into a rotation. Neidert was probably my 8-12ish best one, so he was expendable.

In return I get back a decent 4th rounder which is fine. I also get a player I really like in Solak. He's always been a well regarded prospect who hits the ball with authority and is a solid 2b, alongside getting reps in LF/CF. He's got good enough upside to be a starting 2b on a championship caliber team, with a floor as a utility guy with pop. As much as I like Neidert, and I'll ask Ken for him again, I'll take Solak's floor against an arm with an injury history.
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Royals traded Nick 18-Schnell to Nationals for Jake Cave, Antonio Senzatela

Senzatela and Cave are almost the mirror of each other on the pitching and hitting side. Both were young, coming off of good years, and both have had it really rough at the MLB level this year. They both have good SIM's and should help Ian make a run towards the WC, and both are young enough where a change of MLB scenery would help get their shine back.

That said, neither were in my long-term plans. Schnell does a lot for me. He provides versatility as an '18 draft pick with a lot of upside. He hasn't been setting the world on fire, but he was a 1st round pick and has outfield versatility and the potential for an above average hit and power tool. It's a LONG way away, but he'll be fun to track and is in a great organization.
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Yankees traded Albert Abreu, Luis Urias, Jordan Yamamoto to Nationals for Jasrado 15-Chisholm, Adrian 0-Morejon, Alex 18-Bohm

At the end of the day, there's no way around the fact that I traded 3 legit top 100 prospects, maybe top 60 if you want to. Chisholm is a high ceiling prospect who has to learn to make more contact to allow all his skills to really play. He's got time on his side, but I'm pretty sure Bichette is not going anywhere. Morejon has absolutely terrific stuff and is well worthy of his top 100 ranking, but injuries have already seen him on a pitch count this year and may turn him into a reliever long-term. Bohm was the toughest to give up. He's a legit middle of the order hitter with very real power. But he has to stay at third to make it really work...and there's a lot of concern about that. He's just not a great fielder, but the Phillies will give him every chance to stay there.

Abreu has an absolutely dynamic arm, but he just can't stay on the field. He has three plus pitches, so while there may be some idea to put him in the pen, it makes sense to run him out as a starter as long as possible...and he's still only 23. Yamamoto leaped onto the prospect map after incredibly strong 2017 & 2018's, and, after a strong start to his AA season, he was surprisingly promoted to the majors. And he's really held his own. The walk rate has to return to MiLB levels, but his secondaries back up his strong counting stats, and there's a back-end-to-mid-rotation starter in there...and he's only 23. The get, though, was Urias. I've been asking JB about him for a long, long time. He's a legitimate 70 grade hit tool who has some pop in the bat. He's a top 25 talent at the very least, with an incredibly high floor as a .300 hitting 2b.
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Nationals traded Mets Draft Pick 3, Nationals Draft Pick 3 to Reds for Albert Almora

This is a good draft and these two picks should fall before 70. There's real value there.

Almora has just hit his peak negative value. A former top prospect, Almora's hit tool and defense were seen as giving him a pretty high floor...with real upside if he ever found some power. He has not really found the power, the defense may not be as good as we thought, and the hit tool has not nearly been as good as he gave people hope for in 2016 & 2017. But he's only 25...and he may be a little unlikely. His BABIP is shockingly low and his hard hit % is at a career high. The kid has to learn to take a walk, though, as pitchers are frequently pitching him outside the zone, which is creating a lot of weak contact with his elite bat-to-ball skills. There's plenty of time for him...and he'll keep getting opportunities.
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Nationals traded Brian Howard to Twins for Twins Draft Pick 4

Brian Howard has a high floor as a back-end starter and the SIM likes him.

I'm back to four draft picks.
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Nationals traded Anderson Tejeda to Yankees for Yankees Draft Pick 3

Tejeda is a fun, young prospect who's lost a little bit of his luster this year due to performance and injuries. What hasn't fallen off is his upside. He still has a tremendous upside, he just needs to stay on the field to find it.

I literally can't play 87 people at shortstop, no matter how hard I could try. He was available, and a 3rd was good value for both JB and me.
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Nationals traded David 17-Parkinson, Twins Draft Pick 4 to WhiteSox for WhiteSox Draft Pick 3

Parkinson has got people out since he was drafted. He keeps defying his stuff. He's a fun guy to bet on.

I don't need 87 back-end starters.
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Nationals traded Adonis Medina, Triston 18-Casas, Royals Draft Pick 1 to Twins for Dan Vogelbach, Nationals Draft Pick 5

The #1 pick will be around 20. It's a good pick in a good draft. Jason will get a solid prospect there. Triston Casas is an across the board top 100 prospect who has had a solid first full pro season. Medina's shine has lost it's luster a little this year, but there are no reports on his stuff being down...just some growing pains.

The 5th rounder keeps me at 5 picks. The bet is on Vogelbach. While struggling to acclimate to MLB pitching through inconsistent ab's, Vogelbach continued to destroy AAA...which was the same as he'd done on every MiLB level. In a full-time role this year, he's responded with an all-star appearance and he should end up at 35-ish homers. He's still only 26 and should anchor my lineup for years to come.
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Nationals traded Nick Solak, Shane 17-Baz to Indians for Matt Boyd

Nationals traded Kolby Allard, Daniel 18-Lynch, Nationals Draft Pick 1 to Rays for Griffin Canning, Rays Draft Pick 4

Pirates traded Alex Wood, Devin Smeltzer to Nationals for Monte Harrison, Lazaro 16-Armenteros


Made all these trades from a boat yesterday. Fun deadline.

I gave up a ton of talent. Baz, Lynch, and Harrison are all borderline-if-not-Top 100 guys. My #1 will get a Top 100 guy. Allard and Armenteros are both incredibly interesting prospects in their own right.

That said, I didn't give up anyone I couldn't lose. And I needed pitching desperately. And I kept my core of Bichette, Urias, Kieboom, Waters, Sanchez, Rogers, and Grayson intact. The top of this draft is fun, but I'd miss on Rutschmann and there's zero pitching in this draft.

Smeltzer is in the middle of a breakout season between AA & AAA, and absolutely held his own in his turn in the MLB. Boyd is having a second straight strong season and improving his strikeout stuff entering his prime. Wood is having a throwaway season, but he's quietly been one of the most effective pitchers going when healthy. He's also got his best years ahead of him...assuming health. I think Canning is a #2 type talent and was in the midst of a monster breakout season before being shutdown with a non-serious injury. We picked up 3 starters who can team with Smeltzer, Civale, Urena, and Yamamoto next year in the makings of a decent rotation...while we all wait for Grayson, Kaprielian, Abreu, Brown, and Nelson in the not-too-distant future.
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