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Re: Trades

Post by Padres » Sat Dec 05, 2020 11:00 pm

Marlins traded Jorge 16-Ona, Cristian 15-Javier, Keibert Ruiz, Keoni 19-Cavaco to Padres for Gary Sanchez, Victor 0-Gonzalez, James Karinchak

Gary Sanchez had a rough bubble, but he's still an excellent catcher. Victor Gonzalez and James Karinchak are absolute SIM studs. I'm going to miss both of them very much.

Ruiz is the get. He's a solid top 100 prospect with real upside beyond that. Cavaco was a 1st round pick who's upside is huge, but has an easy downside as a career minor leaguer. Jorge Ona slugged his way to the MLB this season. Cristian Javier has got people out everywhere...including the MLB. Here's to hoping it continues.

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Re: Trades

Post by Padres » Tue Dec 08, 2020 9:19 am

Cubs traded Matt Manning, Alek 18-Thomas to Padres for Joc Pederson, Jose Castillo, Alex Wood, Chris Taylor

No one I gave up, individually is a superstar. Alex Wood has a tough time staying on the field. Joc Pederson has morphed closer to a platoon player. Jose Castillo is coming off major arm problems. Chris Taylor is a nice, if unspectacular utility man. But what do they all have in common? They are each very strong SIM players. Joc will hit in the middle of the lineup versus righties. Wood is at least a #3, if not #2 starter. Castillo is a setup LH arm. Taylor is an above average starter at 2b/ss, with versatility out to potentially 6 positions. It absolutely makes Pat and a 100 win team better.

Alek Thomas is a player I love. He's among a trio of intriguing outfield prospects for the DBacks, and the one with the most likelihood to stay in CF. That's important because while he does have plus raw power, his most likely well above average skill will be his hit tool. He's a pretty consensus top 50 prospect, and higher for those who value high floor over huge ceiling. Matt Manning was the huge get for me. He's a pretty consensus top 20 prospect who's a monster athlete as a pitcher. He was thought to be high ceiling, low floor when taken #9...but he's been absolutely dominant and proven to be incredibly coachable and has moved quickly through the Tigers system. There's slight downside on him as a reliever, but most think he'll be a starter. 2021 is a huge year for him.

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Re: Trades

Post by Padres » Tue Dec 08, 2020 4:56 pm

Padres traded Tyler Anderson, Hunter Dozier to Royals for Taylor Trammell

This one's pretty straightforward. Royals get two very good, very useful SIM baseball players. Dozier is playable at multiple positions, destroys lefties, and did just enough against righties in '19 to think there's still more upside in a non-shortened season. Anderson is a good example of someone the sim randomly seemed to trust more than prospect hounds, and Anderson proved them right so far in 2020. He'll be a very useful #4 starter.

Even with middling results, most prospect people still can't get enough of Taylor Trammell. He still ranks 50-75 for most prospect lists. Even in his struggles he shows explosive athleticism, power, and patience at the plate. The Padres changed his hand position after they traded for him with pretty electric results at the end of the 2019 AA season...which was a huge reason the Mariners targeted him. That lost year of development will be big. He'll be 24 at the end of the 2021 season, so it's time to start really showing progress on his phenomenal tools.

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Re: Trades

Post by Padres » Sun Dec 13, 2020 9:58 am

Padres traded Pablo Lopez to Rangers for Eric 17-Pardinho, Deivi 0-Garcia

I targeted Pablo Lopez in my deal with Brett last year when I gave up Bichette. The SIM loved him as it saw his numbers as he raced through the minors and held up well in his first MLB appearances...and he rewarded numbers over scouting reports last year with a fantastic 2020 for the surprising Marlins team. He probably doesn't have the pure stuff to pitch all the way at the top of a rotation, but he's going to be an effective starter who secondary stats love more than scouts do for a long, long time.

Deivi Garcia is a huge bet on my end. He's a Yankee with genuine top of the rotation stuff...so obviously he's appealing to me. He's also super young and did not look overmatched at all in his 2020 MLB debut, after a breakout 2019. He's also 5'9" and hasn't thrown much over 100 ip's in any season. Durability is going to be a huge concern...which just isn't the case with Lopez. To those durability issues, I asked for Eric Pardinho, who also comes with a ton of risk...but was super intriguing to me. Pardinho hails from Brazil, and was cracking Top 100 prospect lists before multiple injuries, including finally a TJ slowed his progress. He was back throwing at the end of 2020 and will look to regain his prospect status this year. Despite the missed time he's still just 19 years old and while his stuff has taken a huge step forward as a pro, his maturity was always his best asset...and that should lead his comeback.

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Re: Trades

Post by Padres » Sun Dec 13, 2020 10:53 pm

Phillies traded Greg 17-Deichmann to Padres for Deolis Guerra

Even though real life baseball seems to be slipping from Deolis Guerra, the SIM sure won't. He got another tremendously usable SIM despite more struggles at the MLB level.

Deichmann is interesting. He was a big power guy entering the 2017 draft then crushed the NYPL and was starting to get real prospect juice. Then an injury-plagued 2018 was a disaster. A promotion and more injuries came in 2019, and it was looking like another lost season, but he worked on his flexibility to avoid injuries and finished 2019 strongly before leading the AFL in homers. He needed to carry that into 2020 as much as anyone, so it'll be interesting to see where he lands off the off year. He's 25 now, but, outside of a 35/40 hit tool, he's average to above average across the board with 65 power. If the flexibility keeps him on the field, he's a legit 30 homer guy who can play in either corner. The problem is all the lost development time so far...

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Re: Trades

Post by Padres » Tue Dec 15, 2020 9:03 pm

Marlins traded Michel Baez, Kyle 18-Isbel, Kyren 19-Paris, Kameron 19-Misner to Padres for Adrian Houser, Kyle Schwarber, Reyes Moronta, Pirates Draft Pick 4

Schwarber has tantalized and got close to the player he can be...but he's never made it there. The defense will always be kind of an issue, when he sells out for power he loses some real OBP...but he can also be a bit too passive. If he ever really puts it together, he could still be a monster. But it's less valuable in the NL...unless we adopt a DH. Houser thrived in his breakout 2019 as a swingman, but had less success as a full-time starter in 2020 with is k/9 dropping off a cliff in more exposure. He got a strong SIM so he'll be incredibly valuable...and he's young enough to continue to develop. Moronta was quickly becoming a monster before TJ happened. All the reports are he'll be back better than ever, and the SIM is still a fan.

While there's no super duper headliner in this deal, I'm really pleased with the overall value. Baez is pretty much a reliever now, but he still flashes the raw stuff that made him a consensus top 50 prospect, and the Padres still want to try him as a starter. He's a worthwhile guy to take a flier on. Isbel has a solid floor as a 4th of, but there's a lot of hope in the Royals camp that they have a real 20/20 guy on their hands. There were rave reviews on him at the Royals alternate site. Misner was looking like a top 10 pick in the 2019 draft before a brutal start to his junior year dropped him to the supplemental first. He has all the tools to be a superstar, just has a passive approach at the plate that's really kept him from tapping into his plus hit and plus raw tools. But Paris was the guy I wanted. He was one of the younger players in his draft class and absolutely held his own in rookie ball before a hamate injury ended his season. He will probably never hit for serious power, but you don't have to look hard to see four plus tools. He's got a fantastic line drive swing, tremendous athleticism, strong arm, and he can really pick it. He has a long developmental path, but there's really star potential here.

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Re: Trades

Post by Padres » Wed Dec 16, 2020 6:47 pm

These two happened almost simultaneously...and look like insane next to each other...but there's some reasoning.

Giants traded Bryan Reynolds, Brent Rooker to Padres for Ka'ai Tom, Hunter 19-Bishop

Tom was a Rule V guy I picked up, so having some value attached for this deal was great for me. Bishop is a beast. He's got a world of potential, but there are some worries. 2021 will be a monster year for him from a developmental standpoint.

I've been a big Bryan Reynolds guy for a while...especially as someone who values results over natural talent. This was a real year of adversity for him, but the dude has just flat out hit wherever he's been, and the Pirates aren't moving off their valuation of him. He can play left and center. He's a really good baseball player. Rooker is a guy I've asked about a lot. He's another guy that just flat out hits. He's injury prone, strikeout prone, and is a mediocre fielder, but he's impacted the baseball all the way to a successful MLB debut in 2020.

Padres traded Kevin Plawecki, Tim Locastro to Twins for Lenny 18-Torres, Anthony 19-Volpe, Padres Draft Pick 4

Plawecki and Locastro are both just really good baseball players. Plawecki has turned himself into a borderline starter at C, while Locastro has fashioned himself a nice little career all across the OF. Neither may start for Jason, but they are both players good teams need over the course of a season/post-season.

Torres was one of the youngest player in the 2018 draft and looked like a steal until he got hurt...and then he got TJ...wiping him out all the way to 2020. He's got developmental time to make up, but he has the pure stuff, the intelligence, and put on good weight in 2020, so the Indians expect him to hit the ground running. Volpe was the Yankees first round pick in 2019. He got the bat knocked out of his hands a little in the Appy league, but was suffering from mono. The Yanks believe he's a plus hitter, with double digit power and steals, who can stay at SS...so 2021 will be a monster year to see what they really have with him. Aso, I got my 4th round pick back.

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Re: Trades

Post by Padres » Mon Jan 11, 2021 10:15 pm

Padres traded Taylor Trammell, Nolan Jones, Kyren 19-Paris, Twins Draft Pick 3 to Tigers for Brandon Nimmo, Jose Rondon, Jaime Barria, Tigers Draft Pick 4

Nolan Jones is a terrific prospect. There's just some issues. If he's not a 3b, will the bat play big enough at an outfield corner? Will the hit tool ever come around where it needs to be? He's a good prospect with a challenging profile if he's not a 3b. Trammell is an absolute beast athletically...and another consensus top 100 guy...but will the baseball tools ever come into play? We'll see. I think Kyren Paris is awesome, but he lost a year of development at a critical stage.

Nimmo is awesome. Outside of a tough start to 2019, he's been a really good outfielder. He's a 4-5.5 win OF when he's able to stay on the field. He'd be a great result for either Jones or Trammell. Maybe I keep him, maybe I trade him. Either way he's a terrific player. Jamie Barria has had 3 years throwing MLB innings. In 2018 he had a great rookie year. In 2019 he was shelled. In 2020, the secondaries matched some really good numbers. What is he? No idea. Jose Rondon is a player who had a good MiLB career before struggling mightily in his first consistent MLB playing time. The SIM still likes him a good deal though, as he's worth almost 2 wins in 2/3's a season of play. I'm sure he'll be moved to someone who can use him...but he's still only 26. In all? I got a little older, but I do believe my talent got a lot better.

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Re: Trades

Post by Padres » Fri Jan 22, 2021 6:27 pm

Padres traded Dan Vogelbach, Brandon Nimmo, Jose Rondon, Stefan Crichton to Mets for Amed Rosario, Brendan Rodgers, Griffin 18-Conine

Nimmo is a terrific player...and genuinely has all-star potential. But I've got some outfield depth, though none immediately his caliber. Vogelbach is a nice SIM player who's never quite been as good in real life. Crichton is a fine reliever with a solid SIM. And, like Vogelbach, Rondon is a player who the SIM value past his real life success...but he's a really good SIM player. John is absolutely better for this deal.

I went for upside. Rosario was an easy top 10 prospect and started to break out in 2019...but struggled in 2020. He still shows every tool that made everyone excited about him...and he should be a starter in Cleveland. 2021 will be a really big year for him. Speaking of 2021 being a big year, Brendan Rodgers was a Top-10, Top-15 prospect, too, who's seen some sheen come off his status. If the Rockies move Story, Rodgers has a massive opportunity in 2021. He's still young, and, like Rosario, flashes every positive part of his former prospect status. Griffin Conine is the son of Jeff, and, while not a hugely rated prospect, he's just flat out hit wherever he's been. Like every prospect, 2020 was a loss for him...as he would have started to touch the upper levels of the minors at 22...but now won't do it until he's maybe even 24. Hopefully the bat continues to play.

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Re: Trades

Post by Padres » Sun Jan 24, 2021 9:59 am

Pirates traded Mitch Keller, Max 16-Kranick, Athletics Draft Pick 5 to Padres for Michael Fulmer, Keibert Ruiz, Padres Draft Pick 4

Fulmer is a solid pitcher, who the SIM likes, who had a rough return from TJ...but his stuff seemed to be there. Ruiz is a terrific young catcher prospect...but he's also a catcher prospect. JP is getting two very solid players and prospects. JP also got a nice pick swap.

Kranick is a pitcher I drafted way back in the day. He's steadily moved up as a prospect and was added to the 40-man roster this off-season. There's a lot of hope in the Pirates organization that he may see MLB innings this year. Speaking of Pirates, though, the get for me was Keller. Keller was an easy top 20 prospect before a rough pro debut caused a few to change their opinion in 2019, despite some really good underlying numbers. He was just the opposite in 2020 with good numbers tamped down by challenging secondaries. He still flashes TORP stuff...and will only be 25 this year.

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Re: Trades

Post by Padres » Thu Feb 04, 2021 3:33 pm

Padres traded Kyle 18-Isbel, Keoni 19-Cavaco, 2020 Draft Pick 88, 2020 Draft Pick 83 to Mariners for Elehuris Montero, Nathaniel Lowe, 2020 Draft Pick 92, 2020 Draft Pick 91

Cavaco and Isbel were two of my favorite prospects I picked up in the rebuild. Cavaco has a true, monster upside. He's going to be fun to watch grow. Isbel has slightly above average power and average and looks to have a good chance of sticking in center. That's a good player. Given it's a couple prospects, the pick upgrades are fair.

Montero is an interesting prospect. He got REAL interesting as a prospect breaking out in an MVP performance in A in 2018 and holding his own that year in a cup of coffee at A+. Then he got hurt to start 2019 while elevated to AA. He was very bad. He showed some promise again after a late demotion to A+, and was with the Cardinals during 2020, but he's got some work to do to reconnect his prospect status. Lowe was the get for me. He's well loved by the SIM (117 ops+), dominated minor league pitching, has more than held his own in two MLB stints, and has been traded from a pitcher's park to a hitter's park. If he can get his walk rates and K rates to his MiLB levels, he'll be a presence in any lineup.

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Re: Trades

Post by Padres » Sat Feb 06, 2021 11:55 pm

Marlins traded Emmanuel 0-Clase, 2020 Draft Pick 98 to Padres for Noah 19-Song, 2020 Draft Pick 91

Noah Song is a top 100 prospect the minute he steps on the field. He just might not step on the field until 2022.

Clase is a top end relief prospect who was awesome in 2020 before he moved from Texas to Cleveland. He's got a terrific SIM.

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Re: Trades

Post by Twins » Sun Feb 07, 2021 3:26 pm

So, essentially, Nils traded Emmanuel Clase and a draft pick for a Song?

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Re: Trades

Post by Padres » Tue Feb 09, 2021 5:00 pm

Padres traded Brandon 19-Lewis, Kameron 19-Misner to Braves for Keone Kela, 2020 Draft Pick 129

I'm high on both Misner and Lewis. Lewis is a bubble prospect for the Dodgers who popped up after showing monster pop in his minor league debut. Just like every other MiLBer, he really could have used a year this year to continue that breakout. Misner has real top 101 potential, but has just never produced the results to back to the obviously physical ability. He's absolutely one to track, though. He was invited to instructs and performed well...but there's still a ton of work to do.

The pick is nice. If Kela could stay healthy, we're talking about absolutely one of the best relievers in the game...and it's crazy he's still only 27. The SIM still loves him and he'll find a team for this year. He just can't stay healthy. Overall I think the risk for both of us makes sense.

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Re: Trades

Post by Padres » Wed Feb 10, 2021 3:39 pm

Padres traded Lenny 18-Torres to Giants for Patrick Valaika

I like Torres. He's another who could have used a developmental year in 2020, but the stuff is real. Almost every report you read on him is very cautiously optimistic. Just like literally every other prospect, 2021 is a huge year for him.

Valaika has been well liked as a player and prospect for a while, and he made people look really good for liking him in 2020 after years of quality play at AAA and mediocre MLB results. The SIM picked up on it and gave him a pretty damn good SIM for the 2021 season. I'm interested to see how his bat continues to play in 2021, but it and his positional versatility will find itself a good role for me.

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Re: Trades

Post by Padres » Fri Feb 12, 2021 10:01 pm

Rays traded Kevin Newman, 2020 Draft Pick 127 to Padres for Elehuris Montero, 2020 Draft Pick 92

The prospect world was abuzz with Montero in 2018 when in A/A+ as a 19 year old. BA even had him at #81 in their Top 100. He was placed in AA in 2019 and the wheels absolutely came off. He should have started in A+. Reports from 2020 were solid, and he was an important part of the Arenado deal. He's a really good prospect...but he'll be 23 this year with no real, consistent success above A ball. COVID19 sucks.

Kevin Newman is kind of similar at the MLB level. He popped into Top 100 lists after a fantastic 2016 season. He was fine in 2017 based on age/level, and made his MLB debut in 2018 after a fantastic year at AAA. He was awesome in 2019 at the MLB level across 2b, 3b, ss, & lf. Like many, he was atrocious in the craziness of 2020. He's projected to be the starting SS for the Pirates this year...and we'll see if he's the 2016/2018/2019 player...or if he's the 2017/2020 player with consistent AB's. I'm a believer in Kieboom at 3b, so Newman's worth the risk alongside Rodgers, Rosario, & Valaika up the middle.

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