2009 NFL Predictions

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Post by Yankees »

RedSox wrote:Eli has a ring, but before that season his job was in question and let's be honest, there are a lot of mediocre QB's out there with Super Bowl rings (Does anyone know where Trent Dilfer is these days?). Having one doesn't make you hot stuff. Eli is clearly no Dilfer, but take away being in NY and being a Manning and nobody would be calling him anything particularly special either.
It's one thing to hate Eli (which I'm fine with, I get why people might), but there's a difference in judging him because you hate him, and how good he actually is. Manning was easily one of the top 10 QB's in the league last year - and Eli has never played with a great all around receiver. He's had to deal with Amani Toomer's dead corpse, and Plaxico "I Only Play in the Red Zone" Burress. True he's had an excellent running game, which has helped, but it's not like Eli's throwing to Wayne/Harrison, Fitzgerald/Boldin, or even Colston/Henderson.

I, for one, was thrilled to see Plax and Toomer leave. Smith is a tremendous route runner and possession receiver, Sinorice Moss is very exciting with the football in his hands, and all I kept hearing about in training camp was how awesome Nicks/Manningham/Barden were playing.

Eli got paid because he deserved to get paid. He won a Super Bowl, and has established himself as a top 10 quarterback in this league. I'm not sure if you've noticed, but it's insanely valuable to have an above average quarterback leading your squad. If you've got Eli Manning, don't wish you had Peyton or Tom Brady - be thankful for what you've got - and for fuck's sake keep him around.
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Post by Giants »

I take serious issue with that comment. Say what you will about Plax's effort level, he was absolutely one of the 10 best receivers in the NFL the year they won the Super Bowl. I have my personal issues with Manning, he has the leadership skills Peyton doesn't (the more I learn about the Chargers and how they do business the more I understand his refusal to play there) but he also doesn't have anywhere near the physical talent of his brother. I still stand by my belief that if his last name wasn't Manning he would have been a 3rd round pick, and that if Philip Rivers was the QB of the Giants not only would they have won the Super Bowl that year but we wouldn't be talking about the helmet catch because the ball would have been thrown accurately.
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Post by Yankees »

He would be the Tom Brady of 3rd Round Picks. And you can believe what you want about Plaxico Burress, but he was the most physically gifted receiver in the NFL (which is saying something), and cared very little about catching the ball outside the red zone. Almost 20% of his catches (and he only caught 70, so we're not exactly talking a 100 catch guy) went for TD's they year they won the Super Bowl, and his average catch was under 15 ypc - so clearly he wasn't exactly breaking TD's.

Burress was an absolute force in the Red Zone, and the lack of a Burress is what has led to Giants struggles in the Red Zone for the end of last season and the beginning of this one - there's no question about that. But, down for down, Eli will be better this year because he has receivers that come to play every down - and Nicks and Manningham are Home Run threats whenever they touch the ball. This is, without question, the deepest and most talented group of receivers Eli's ever worked with. AND it's showing. The Redskins have a good pass defense, and Eli played quite well against them. The Cowboys have a very good pass rush, and a decent secondary - and Eli SHREDDED them.

My last point is that Eli has never had to be what Rivers was last year, what Brady is, and what Brees and Peyton are currently. Manning has long featured one of the best running games in the league, and his job was just to lead his team from behind - which he has done quite well. Right now, it doesn't look like Jacobs is 100% healthy, and though Bradshaw looks terrific, he's not a 20 carry back. Based on the first two games, this could be a true test year for Manning - so far, so good.
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Post by Royals »

I'd agree with every word Jake wrote above.
He got paid cuz he deserved to get paid? Sorry, but I've gotta call Bullshit on that. Eli got paid as the best player in NFL history when he's not even the best player in his freakin family. Is he top 10 in the NFL right now, sure, I won't argue against that, but that's not exactly a strong endorsement when you have only 32 starting QB's. And the Tom Brady of third round picks? C'mon, I'm sure there are already guys out there who were third rounders and turned out better than Eli, you'll never find another 6th rounder to even sniff TB's jockstrap, most first rounders can't even get there.

Re: Plax... how horrible, a WR that turns it on in the red zone... despicable...
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Post by Yankees »

Re: Bren...Someone who turns a point that's not the point I'm making into how he wants the argument.

I said where Plax was great, and that his absence has led to some struggles. But he was not a strong receiver from 20 yards and out - you can ask any Giants fan. Shockey and Toomer put up great numbers because they were Manning's targets 20 yards and out. Shockey was talented but couldn't stay on the field, and Toomer was a shell of his former self the past two years - and still put up some decent numbers. With Smith, Nicks, Manningham, Moss, Hixon, and Boss, Eli has unquestionably his deepest group of receivers to date. Eli proved that he deserved a contract - now it's time to prove he's one of the games best.

And Re: Manning's contract. Reese is one of the best GM's in the game. QB's get ridiculous contracts if they are good enough - and Eli falls in that category. The Giants have done incredible things with the cap, and clearly had the room to lock up their very good quarterback - who clearly would have gotten paid near that amount on the open market. The Giants paid Manning because he is without question better than the alternatives of...what? A rookie? They work out 50% of the time - at best. David Carr? Jeff Garcia? Jeff George? Byron Leftwich? Michael Vick? Brett Favre? Seriously - what the fuck were the Giants going to do but lock up Eli? Finding and keeping a franchise QB in the NFL is n'ar impossible.

Brady, Peyton, Warner, Rivers, McNabb, and Brees have all had better numbers out of absolute necessity. The running games for their teams range from streaky at the top end, to horrific for most. Eli has sat on the game's best all around running attack for the past 3 years - and when the Giants have needed him to come through, he has. His "come from behind to win drives" have become almost automatic. Eli has put up his numbers throwing the ball 25-30 times per game, not the 40-50 the QB's above have HAD to. Many of Eli's interceptions come when the Giants are behind, and he HAS to throw the football - and the defense is rushing 5 or 6 strong, and nickle or diming. To say that the Giants win every time they are behind because of Eli is clearly inaccurate - they have lost games over the past 3 years. But to say that he gives them a better chance then the vast majority of teams in the league would be absolutely accurate. Ask Patriots fans...(Low blow? Too soon?)...
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Post by Royals »

The Giants needed a ridiculous hlmet catch on an awful Eli throw to win that SB. Sometimes fate/luck/chance is just against you, if you can't deal with that, then you don't deserve to celebrate when it goes your way. It wasn't an easy thing to deal with, but when you're as used to gut shots as most New England sports fans are and when you put it against the backdrop of the wealth of riches we've enjoyed lately, it really wasn't all that bad (Remember we had just had a second Red Sox WS victory and were in the midst of an amazing Celtics season. Even the Bruins looked good at that point).

Re Eli: Even when playing from behind, he still has the threat of those backs behind him, if a defense commits to the pass, there's still the danger of Jacobs or one of the others breaking open a big run

"now it's time to prove he's one of the games best." Top ten, sure. One of the games best? To me, one of the games best is top 3 and no way does Eli even deserve consideration for that.

An open-market contract is very different from a renewal, the conditions are completely different. It's like comparing Tazawa's contract to the contracts of draft picks, it's a completely ridiculous comparison. That said, I still don't think Eli gets that much money on the open market. I'm not saying the Giants should have not signed him, but that contract was just absurd and with the CBA expiring and who knows what the new one will look like, they could very well find themselves regretting it.

I do have to take back one comment, though. At one point I think I said Eli is the most overrated player in the NFL. Make that second-most, I had somehow managed to forget about Kurt "Hey, I look amazing when I have great receivers don't I?" Warner.

"Re: Bren...Someone who turns a point that's not the point I'm making into how he wants the argument. "
Little known fact, I was approached to be a campaign advisor to Sarah Palin for precisely that reason :D
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Post by Giants »

So you're right that the Giants other options weren't great, and Eli and his agents knew that as well as anyone else. As a result they used that leverage to get him grossly overpaid. He is only in the position to get grossly overpaid because his last name is Manning, which was worth an extra year and 40 million or so on that contract. If Eli's name were, say, Eli Romo he'd have gotten a contract much like the 6 year $67.4 million dollar deal that Tony Romo signed with the Cowboys. Romo is overpaid and overrated as well (though the league is starting to figure that out), but he got the contract like that because of his leverage in the who else are they going to sign department. I'll grant that Eli winning a Super Bowl is worth a good chunk of money, in fact let's say it's worth $15 million, which sounds about right and works out very conveniently because it's the value of the extra year in the contract. So pulling that out it means that instead of signing a 7 year $106.7 million dollar deal this non Super Bowl winning Eli would sign a 6 year $91 million-ish deal, making the Manning name (using my rough and arbitrary methodology) worth about $24 million dollars (not bad if I do say so myself).

That might have been long and confusing, but this isn't. I suppose your claim that Manning would be the 3rd round equivalent of Tom Brady was meant to imply that he'd be the best quarterback ever taken in the 3rd round. There is a gentleman by the name of Montana who was taken in the 3rd round of the 1979 draft who might take issue with that assessment.

As far as Burress goes, I'll grant you his question marks, but even given those question marks in that 2007 season name me 10 better receivers. I'll grant you Moss, Andre Johnson, Marques Colston, and Larry Fitzgerald, but then you have to have Burress battling with Chad Johnson and TO for the #5 spot, with maybe room for Braylon Edwards and Brandon Marshall in the discussion. Reggie Wayne had a monster statistical year (my hatred for the Colts caused me to trade him for pennies on the dollar that year, d'oh!), but he was facing second string corners while teams focused on stopping Marvin Harrison. Burress was also playing on the injured ankle that was so bad he didn't practice all year. Considering he was hurt perhaps it's understandable that he saved his best effort for the situations it mattered the most?
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Post by Phillies »

Brady, Peyton, Warner, Rivers, McNabb, and Brees have all had better numbers out of absolute necessity. The running games for their teams range from streaky at the top end, to horrific for most. Eli has sat on the game's best all around running attack for the past 3 years - and when the Giants have needed him to come through, he has. His "come from behind to win drives" have become almost automatic. Eli has put up his numbers throwing the ball 25-30 times per game, not the 40-50 the QB's above have HAD to. Many of Eli's interceptions come when the Giants are behind, and he HAS to throw the football - and the defense is rushing 5 or 6 strong, and nickle or diming. To say that the Giants win every time they are behind because of Eli is clearly inaccurate - they have lost games over the past 3 years. But to say that he gives them a better chance then the vast majority of teams in the league would be absolutely accurate. Ask Patriots fans...(Low blow? Too soon?)...
well said. i dont like the guy because i hate the Giants. i think hes a very good QB and Z has already shown why. i have stopped looking at how much a player makes because in every sport there is someone that has a contract that pisses me off. alot. Randy Jones has a 3 million dollar cap hit as our #6 defensemen. hockey fans will understand why that pisses me off as much as it does. money aside, id take Eli as my QB any day of the week.
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Post by Yankees »

Jake - I truly don't know what you want me to say about Burress. The numbers speak for themselves - a ton of TD's, not many catches, and a terrible YPC. He was an absolute force of nature in the Red Zone - and if that makes someone a top 10 receiver, I'm all for the argument. I was very happy Burress was a Giant. But he was almost non-existent outside the 20 - that area of the field was held for Toomer, Smith, and Boss/Shockey to make their numbers. I'm all for the logic that the Giants current Red Zone struggles have everything to do with not having Burress. That said - I'd rather we run with the troops we have now on the edges.

Here's the thing - I don't think the Giants or Cowboys (or even the Panthers for that matter) were leveraged into any deal this off-season. I think the GM's looked at complete dirth of quality QB's in the league, looked at their salary caps, and were thrilled to lock these guys up for a while. Now it appears the league may be figuring out Romo a little (and let's not go nuts here either - Romo had a huge first week against a decent team, and the Giants have a terrific secondary), it's also clear that Manning keeps cruising along as a terrific little QB.

For the record, if you think that a Super Bowl victory was worth "only" $15 million for a quarterback, you're out of your mind. WAY more - so long as your name isn't "Trent Dilfer" - and even then, he may have got more just for being able to hang around way past his "done" date...

Also, I think any team in the NFL would GLADLY pay $24 million for a "Manning" - it's proved to be a pretty sound investment so far.
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Post by Yankees »

I'd also like to point out that I'm not saying Eli IS in the Peyton/Brady/Brees category. He has bouts of inaccuracy, he has a tremendous skill in wasting timeouts by not getting out of the huddle, and sometimes he clearly outthinks himself on the line of scrimmage. (Really Eli? You want to audible into a run RIGHT where they are blitzing?)

I'll also tell you what Eli is terrific at - he's incredible with the ball and down a few points. He has improved his accuracy, and spreads the ball around tremendously. His long ball gets intercepted rarely because he does a great job of looking off safeties and linebackers. He's actually an intelligent quarterback, and while not exactly mobile, is in the Brees/Peyton/Brady category for pocket awareness. He's also CLEARLY won the locker room - even when he's struggled, he's had the offensive and defensive guys SPRINT to the microphones to back him up. And, finally, granted that he has some outstanding players behind him, and a terrific front office and coaching staff to support him, but the motherfucker has made a habit of winning football games. There are definitely some QB's out there that are more physically talented than Eli, have some decent teams around them, and can't get out of their own way (cough Favre last year cough, cough Delhomme cough, cough Jason Campbell cough, cough Vince Young/Kerry Collins cough, cough Jay Cutler cough - I'll keep going if I have to...)
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Post by Athletics »

I miss Mike Cloud. He was quite possibly my favorite player on that 03 Pats roster. For no good reason whatsoever.


All of this Brady/Manning twins/Brees discussion made me dig up the rosters of the Pats glorious past.
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Post by Astros »

DT, one of my favorite Colts was always Brian Fletcher, it's okay. But then again I've always loved the fringey guys, some of my favorite Cardinals were Joe McEwing, Kerry Robinson, Gene Stechschulte and Mike Crudale. And my favorite WCW wrestler was Brad Armstrong. So basically if you're not very successful, odds are I'm a big fan of yours
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Post by Cardinals »

Royals wrote:"I'm very curious why no one had any confidence in the Giants...anyone want to own up?
Royals wrote:I guess this comes from conversations with my Giants fan friends. We clearly have one of the best o- and d-lines in the league. Our pass defense has transitioned into "excellent" status. Our run game has two very good backs. We have excellent special teams that never give up a big play. We have one of the best QB's in the league.

The only negative coming into the year was "no Plaxico Burress." However, if anyone ever watched the Giants they could have clearly seen the progress that Smith, Boss, and Moss made last year - and then if anyone read anything about football they would have known how high the Giants are on Nicks, Manningham, and Barden. They were also 12-4 last year, and have one of, if not the best, executive in the league calling the shots on their roster.

Can we do better then Nick's on why peeps didn't like them?
Royals wrote:I'll also tell you what Eli is terrific at - he's incredible with the ball and down a few points. He has improved his accuracy, and spreads the ball around tremendously. His long ball gets intercepted rarely because he does a great job of looking off safeties and linebackers. He's actually an intelligent quarterback
Eli in games this year vs teams with more than 2 wins:
78-145, 53.5%, 5 TD, 6 INT
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Post by DBacks »

Not many QBs have looked worse than Eli these last three weeks. Eagles players were getting their hands on his passes more than his WR. And that's barely an exaggeration.
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Re: Bengals, I rule.
12, 14, 15, 17, 22
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Post by Royals »

I never developed an affection fo the reds when I was in Cinci, but somehow I did for the Bengals, I love seeing them do so well. They've been my dark horse pick for the SB since their first win over Pittsburgh
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Post by Astros »

Great great great game! WOOOOOOOOOOOO! I don't know how it happened. I feel like Frank the Tank, I blacked out, what just happened?
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Post by Athletics »

Cardinals wrote:Great great great game! WOOOOOOOOOOOO! I don't know how it happened. I feel like Frank the Tank, I blacked out, what just happened?
Hey Aaron, go fuck yourself.
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Post by Phillies »

go giants go
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Post by DBacks »

Woo. I wish Philly didn't have a cake schedule the rest of the way... Oh well. I'm still FINALLY feeling the playoffs for my Cowboys. Let's actually peak at the right time this year.
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Post by Astros »

How's Romo going to blow it in the playoffs this year? We've already had fumbled snap on the easiest possible game winning field goal of all time and interception in the end zone on the final drive.
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I'm thinking he throws a last second TD pass to Roy Williams, who of course only tips it, causing it to ricochet around several Cowboy players like the Magic Bullet taking out kneecaps and eyeballs.
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Post by Cardinals »

Nationals wrote:I'm very curious why no one had any confidence in the Giants...anyone want to own up?
Phew.
12, 14, 15, 17, 22
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Post by Royals »

Pirates wrote:
Nationals wrote:I'm very curious why no one had any confidence in the Giants...anyone want to own up?
Phew.
Ditto.

Never been so happy to see the Jets win a game.... all those close games were going to catch up to the colts eventually, I suppose if you're a Colts fan better now than in the playoffs.
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Post by Astros »

Padres wrote:
Pirates wrote:
Nationals wrote:I'm very curious why no one had any confidence in the Giants...anyone want to own up?
Phew.
Ditto.

Never been so happy to see the Jets win a game.... all those close games were going to catch up to the colts eventually, I suppose if you're a Colts fan better now than in the playoffs.
There is no way in hell the Jets win that game if Caldwell doesn't pull Manning. Heck, I'm convinced if he gave Peyton one more drive and said, this is it for you today, drive down the field for a touchdown, 12 point lead, then tells the defense to hang on and goes super conservative on offense. But no, they stuck Painter in deep in his own territory with a 5 point lead, he gets hammered, fumbles and gives up the lead on the 4th snap of his career. As soon as Peyton got pulled, you could see that the defense just gave up. They knew that Caldwell didn't care about winning the game and it sucked the life out of them. Prior to the 2nd team defense giving up the last touchdown the Jets only scored on a field goal, the Painter fumble and a 106 yard kickoff return where it looked like the coverage team eased up because they figured Brad Smith would kneel down for a touchback. I don't know a single Colts fan that isn't pissed off big time right now, because the game was won
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