Another look at Park factors - By Division

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Another look at Park factors - By Division

Post by Padres »

Aaron Gleeman has a new article up at Rotoworld which he has "chosen to focus on Baseball-Reference.com's three-year park factors (unless a specific ballpark hasn't been around that long). A park factor above 100 means hitter friendly and a park factor below 100 means pitcher friendly."

I have taken the liberty of stacking his findings by division to look at how the park factors play out on a division basis. A couple of things surprised me ...

1.) Despite having the most pitcher friendly park by far, Petco, the NL West actually edged out the East and Central with the highest average hitter friendly park factor:

NL West (101)

COL 107
ARZ 107
SFG 102
LAD 100
SDP 89

NL Central (100.5)

CHC 106
CIN 104
MIL 100
HOU 99
STL 99
PIT 95

NL East (100.5)

PHI 103
WAS 101
FLA 99
ATL 99
NYM unk

I expect, based on everything I have read about Citifield, it will be a sub-100 park ...

2.) The difference between the AL East and the West is much larger then I would have guessed:

AL East (103.5) - bombs away

BOS 108
BAL 103
TBR 103
TOR 103
NYY unk

AL Central (100) - allegedly neutral overall

CWS 105
CLE 103
DET 102
KCR 97
MIN 93

AL West (98.5) - favors pitchers overall

LAA 103
TEX 101
SEA 96
OAK 93

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/featur ... leid=32117
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Post by Giants »

I didn't realize Minnesota was such a pitcher's park. Watching Holliday in Oakland this year will be fascinating.
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Post by Nationals »

[quote="Athletics"]I didn't realize Minnesota was such a pitcher's park. Watching Holliday in Oakland this year will be fascinating.[/quote

The pitcher-friendliness is a bit more than I had expected...however that should only serve as a boon to my mildly above-par staff
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Post by Cardinals »

The fact that LAA > TEX in terms of a hitting park sort of nullifies this for me.
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Post by Rangers »

Pirates wrote:The fact that LAA > TEX in terms of a hitting park sort of nullifies this for me.
Yeah. Also, Texas is adding two rows of seats behind home plate (in front of the front row) so a tiny foul area will be even smaller this season.
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Post by Giants »

Last year was a weird year. AT&T/SBC/Pac Bell hasn't ever played as a hitter's park before, and the Giants offense was perhaps the worst of the modern era so that shouldn't have helped matters. I'd love to see the math.
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Post by Royals »

The weighted MLB schedule makes park factors kind of tricky to calculate accurately, a balanced schedule would be more conducive. Several of the models I've seen can be thrown off by a division with predominantly weak (or strong) hitting (or pitching). I'd like to see the math as well.
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Post by Mets »

How much does a shitty home offense have an impact on pitcher friendliness?
2008-2023 Mets: 1,054-1,223...463%
2006-2008 Rockies: 242-244...498%

IBC Total: 1,296-1,467...469%
2022: lost WC
2023: lost WC
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Post by Giants »

If AT&T played as a hitter's park it can't possibly have much.
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Post by Royals »

It shouldn't, but it could depending on the calculation method.
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Post by Padres »

1. I put this thread out here for discussion purposes during the slow off season ... and it is getting some discussion.

2. I am not a math whiz ... i don't even pretend to be 100% "saber" guy though I do read and try to undestand the "new math" in baseball stats.

3. Here is some info pertaining to Baseball-Reference.com's three-year park factors: http://www.baseball-reference.com/about ... just.shtml

4. I can find info on the net that points at problems with the methodology used by Baseball-Reference.com ...

5. I put this thread out here for discussion purposes during the slow off season ... and it is getting some discussion.
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Post by Padres »

Twins wrote:
Athletics wrote:I didn't realize Minnesota was such a pitcher's park. Watching Holliday in Oakland this year will be fascinating.
The pitcher-friendliness is a bit more than I had expected...however that should only serve as a boon to my mildly above-par staff
The only real surprise in this group of highly pitcher-friendly ballparks is the Metrodome, but the old "Homerdome" nickname stopped being accurate a while ago. The Metrodome had a park factor of 100 or above in all but five seasons from 1982-2005, typically ranking in the 102-106 range. However, it has been below 100 in each of the past three seasons, including 92 in 2007 and 94 last year. Perhaps the change in carpet is to blame.

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/featur ... leid=32117
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Post by Padres »

Pirates wrote:The fact that LAA > TEX in terms of a hitting park sort of nullifies this for me.
Rangers Ballpark has gone through the same sort of gradual change as Coors Field, but on a lesser scale. It has been above 100 in all but two of the past 14 seasons, but whereas the park factor was 110, 110, and 112 from 2002-2004 it has been just 103, 103, 97, and 103 over the past four seasons. Texas is still a good place to hit, particularly for power, but it's no longer the best hitter's ballpark in the American League.

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/featur ... leid=32117
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Post by Padres »

Rockies wrote:How much does a shitty home offense have an impact on pitcher friendliness?
Not directly on point but:

One of the common misconceptions when it comes to "park factors" is that the quality of a team's lineup and pitching staff drives the number. For instance, whenever I write that Michael Young is overrated in part because his offensive stats have been padded by Texas' ballpark, Rangers fans inevitably chime in saying that the ballpark is considered "hitter-friendly" largely because the lineup is strong and the rotation is weak.

However, that's not actually how park factors work. The Rangers have indeed had good hitting and poor pitching over the past decade or so, but they also have to take that same good hitting and poor pitching on the road. And that's where park factors come in, examining how the Rangers and their opponents perform in Texas compared to how the Rangers and their opponents perform away from Texas.

For example, last season the Rangers and their opponents combined to score an average of 12.3 runs per game in Texas compared to an average of 10.8 runs per game away from Texas. Same lineup and pitching staff for the Rangers, but a 1.5-run difference in the amount of runs being scored in their games. Why? Because the Rangers' home ballpark boosts offense and thus has a hitter-friendly "park factor."

http://www.baseball-reference.com/about ... just.shtml
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Post by Royals »

I'm not buying Fenway as the #1 hitters park in MLB.
One of the problems with methodologies like this one (now that I've seen it) is the root data. Runs scored is a poor choice for the same reason that Runs and RBI for hitters and ERA for pitchers are scoffed at by the more Sabr inclined.
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Post by Royals »

Jim, kudos on the topic, it's a good discussion issue.
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Post by Giants »

Thanks Jim, you never have to defend anyone else's work you post. Obviously these weren't your calculations so if someone doesn't like the results they certainly aren't challenging you.

Bren, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis came out as legitimate middle of the order threats last year, Fenway is absolutely (and always has been) the best or close to it as far as hitters parks in the American League.

FWIW Ortiz lost 195 points of OPS, Youkilis lost 119, points Pedroia lost 95 points, and the team as a whole lost 68 points leaving Boston. At least my boy Drew was exactly even. By comparison the Yankees lost 40 points as a whole leaving their bandbox. Considering Fenway's impact on the team's beset hitters I'd definitely say there was a case to be made.
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Post by Royals »

I'm not arguing Fenway isn't a good hitter's park, it is, but the best hitter's park in all of baseball? Nope.
One of the reasons I'm not fond of most of the methods used to calculate park factor, aside from their dependence on runs, (which is a huge one) is the issue of how comfortable a team is hitting at home versus hitting on the road (ditto pitching). That's something that's simply impossible to factor because it's so personal. Aside from simple comfort factor of not being on the road, the familiarity of the park's dimensions can be a huge help. tuning your swing to shoot for the green monster in Fenway (probably the most extreme architectural detail in baseball) or Yankee stadium's right field works great for 81 games, not so much for the other 81.
Back when I had free time and a home computer (Ok, I was avoiding thesis work) I was working on a method that looked strictly at the performance of road teams in different road parks for generating park factor data. I didn't get too far with it though because the data gathering was a pain in the butt, there just wasn't an efficient way to gather the data. I'd like to pick it up again at some point in the future though.
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Post by Giants »

On the one hand that sounds compelling, on the other hand it sounds like "clutch." I'd be interested in seeing the results.
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Post by Royals »

me too... unfortunately, it's going to be a while I think.
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Post by Padres »

ESPN has updated it's listing of park factors to include the new stadiums in NYC. Sorry I could not format it better ...

MLB Park Factors - 2009
RK PARK NAME RUNS HR H 2B 3B BB
1 Coors Field (Denver, Colorado) 1.247 1.082 1.158 1.266 1.771 1.070
2 Chase Field (Phoenix, Arizona) 1.193 1.042 1.092 1.304 1.559 1.004
3 Wrigley Field (Chicago, Illinois) 1.146 1.006 1.024 1.052 0.920 1.040
4 Land Shark Stadium (Miami, Florida) 1.136 1.127 1.075 1.110 0.636 1.141
5 Kauffman Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri) 1.113 0.761 1.155 1.196 1.472 1.068
6 Mall of America Field (Minneapolis, Minnesota) 1.090 1.111 1.037 1.006 1.218 0.938
7 Rangers Ballpark in Arlington (Arlington, Texas) 1.085 1.194 1.062 1.074 1.455 1.072
8 Fenway Park (Boston, Massachusetts) 1.072 0.964 0.994 1.370 1.080 0.884
9 U.S. Cellular Field (Chicago, Illinois) 1.062 1.193 0.957 0.918 0.792 1.133
10 AT&T Park (San Francisco, California) 1.052 0.970 1.011 1.016 1.111 0.863
11 Oriole Park at Camden Yards (Baltimore, Maryland) 1.037 1.185 1.112 0.979 1.043 0.926
12 Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania) 1.028 1.005 1.018 1.047 0.903 1.019
13 Comerica Park (Detroit, Michigan) 1.026 0.974 0.961 0.951 1.076 1.027
14 PNC Park (Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania) 1.022 1.054 1.053 0.939 0.714 0.969
15 Angel Stadium of Anaheim (Anaheim, California) 1.020 1.220 1.002 0.925 0.611 0.974
16 Nationals Park (Washington, D.C.) 1.008 0.970 0.966 1.000 1.135 0.965
17 Tropicana Field (St. Petersburg, Florida) 0.996 0.939 1.004 1.021 1.500 0.954
18 Great American Ball Park (Cincinnati, Ohio) 0.975 1.176 0.995 1.018 1.087 1.037
19 Oakland Coliseum (Oakland, California) 0.974 0.927 0.946 0.901 1.130 0.970
20 Yankee Stadium (New York, NY) 0.965 1.261 0.995 0.810 0.500 1.104
21 Safeco Field (Seattle, Washington) 0.947 0.886 0.984 0.911 0.842 1.085
22 Citi Field (New York, NY) 0.943 1.057 0.955 0.955 1.200 0.942
23 Rogers Centre (Toronto, Ontario) 0.937 0.990 0.899 0.994 1.053 0.987
24 Minute Maid Park (Houston, Texas) 0.930 1.065 1.036 0.873 1.000 0.968
25 Busch Stadium (St. Louis, Missouri) 0.919 0.736 0.981 0.952 0.686 1.033
26 Turner Field (Atlanta, Georgia) 0.895 0.861 0.938 0.848 1.091 1.066
27 Miller Park (Milwaukee, Wisconsin) 0.886 1.069 0.932 1.071 1.091 0.995
28 Dodger Stadium (Los Angeles, California) 0.857 0.876 0.959 0.989 0.605 0.780
29 Progressive Field (Cleveland, Ohio) 0.838 0.670 0.960 1.010 0.528 0.950
30 Petco Park (San Diego, California) 0.741 0.721 0.805 0.711 0.778 1.142
Glossary
Park Factor compares the rate of stats at home vs. the rate of stats on the road. A rate higher than 1.000 favors the hitter. Below 1.000 favors the pitcher. Teams with home games in multiple stadiums list aggregate Park Factors.

PF: ((homeRS + homeRA)/(homeG)) / ((roadRS + roadRA)/(roadG))
homeRS: Runs scored at home
homeRA: Runs allowed at home
homeG: Home games
roadRS: Runs scored on the road
roadRA: Runs allowed on the road
roadG: Road games

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor
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Post by Royals »

Thi was one of my favorite discussion threads in quite a long while, I'm glad to see it resurrected.

I'm glad to see ESPN incorporatign walks as something they quantify, but personally, I feel they need to go further. How far? Well in the park factor work I've been doing for the projections, I include Strikeouts, walks, Hit batsmen, double plays, sac flies and sac hits. There are strong statistical trends by park for each of these events. adjusting for hits means you will have to account for that rate change elsewhere in an event table.

I also reinforce the batting data with pitcher batting against data. It generates a larger, more reliable sample size.

I still think using Runs is really fucking stupid. :)
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Post by Giants »

I didn't realize Toronto was so pitcher friendly. Hopefully that'll help Shaun Marcum on his way back :D
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Post by Mets »

Turner Field is my home stadium, and I see a lot of long balls there. This positioning surprises me.
2008-2023 Mets: 1,054-1,223...463%
2006-2008 Rockies: 242-244...498%

IBC Total: 1,296-1,467...469%
2022: lost WC
2023: lost WC
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Post by Royals »

Mets wrote:Turner Field is my home stadium, and I see a lot of long balls there. This positioning surprises me.
It may seem surprising, but the park has played as more of a pitcher's park as far as homeruns for several years, although this year represents an increase in that regard.
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