World Cup Discussion

Dan Vacek's blog

Moderator: Orioles

User avatar
Orioles
Posts: 3103
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2004 1:00 am
Location: Glastonbury, CT
Name: Dan Vacek
Contact:

World Cup Discussion

Post by Orioles »

"We cannot win this World Cup, because we are not at that level yet," Klinsmann told the [New York Times] magazine in December. "For us, we have to play the game of our lives seven times to win the tournament.

"Realistically, it is not possible."
I hate that he said this, no matter how true it is.

Otherwise, I think I'm a believer in Klinsy. I'm even coming around on the Landon Donovan thing. A big part of me still thinks Donovan could be a valuable weapon late in a game and fit into a typical role for an aging great on many a world squad, but Klinsmann's comments about the American cult of celebrity and the stupidity of the Kobe Bryant contract reinforce that his objective is to build the US program into a long-term World Cup contender. Maybe it's just that important that young guys like Brooks, Yedlin and Green go along for the ride. Maybe he sees something in another player's game that he likes better without Donovan in the mix. Maybe he just needed to put his own stamp on the program and move past the "Donovan Era," eliminating anticipated distractions caused by questions about whether he'll start, or play at all. Whatever the reasoning, Klinsmann's on board for the long haul with a contract through 2018. So maybe I'm just giving him the benefit of the doubt based on his track record, but the team's performance with him at the helm and the landing of Julian Green have been impressive enough for me to have faith in the head man for the US going into the World Cup.

Victory over recent-world-cup-nemesis Ghana would probably turn my cautious optimism into open overconfidence, even with heavyweights Portugal and Germany on deck. Still more than a little afraid of the Black Stars though.

2023 GM Totals: 1780 W - 1460 L | 0.549 wpct | 89-73 (avg 162 G record)
User avatar
Yankees
Posts: 4249
Joined: Fri Jan 31, 2003 1:00 am
Location: Fulshear, TX
Name: Brett Zalaski
Contact:

Post by Yankees »

I still think leaving Donovan out was extremely moronic, but they looked pretty good in the send-off series...especially against a very good Nigerian team.

I think if he took out the entire part before the first comma, that whole statement would have been fine...because it's true. Ghana would probably be the only team the US can play decent and beat.

Jurgen loves America, and he would love to be the guy who carries the torch for the USMNT probably beyond 2018. The pipeline of up-and-coming US soccer stars is deeper than it's ever been. Beyond Brooks/Yedlin/Green, Altidore, Bradley, Chandler, Diskerud, Gonzalez, Johannsson, and Fabian Johnson all may have 2 World Cup runs left. Guzan, Besler, Cameron, Bedoya, Zusi and an outside shot on Dempsey all have 1 more.

They've also got Gil, Shipp, Trapp, Agudelo, Boyd, Bruin, Gatt, Gyau, O'Neill, Joya, Villareal, Pelosi, Klute, Corona, Shea, Danny Williams, McInerney, Cropper, and I'm missing a ton of other young players who aren't making this trip. We've also got Diego Fagundez and Darlington Nagbe who should be eligible in a few years...and this does include the biggest coup...if Klinsmann can recruit Gedion Zalalem.

Klinsmann has the youth system prospering, more American player are entering premier youth academies overseas...on top of those receiving homegrown contracts and first team opportunities in MLS (now considered a top 6-7 league in the world).

A victory over Ghana is going to put a ton of pressure on the loser of Germany/Portugal...or both if they tie. It would be a huge advantage to face a Germany or Portugal team that has to throw numbers forward for 3 points when our two best skills are scrambling defense and the counterattack...with one of the best goalie in the world between the pipes. US Soccer is in a really good place right now, and this 2014 World Cup has the potential to be a really fun start.
User avatar
BlueJays
Posts: 2209
Joined: Tue Oct 13, 2009 1:00 pm
Location: Johnston, RI
Name: David Taylor

Post by BlueJays »

Anybody wanna rank all the countries in the World Cup so I can submit it at work into our World Cup pool?
"Hating the Yankees is as American as pizza pie, unwed mothers, and cheating on your income tax."
User avatar
Phillies
Posts: 2918
Joined: Mon Apr 01, 2002 1:00 am
Name: Nick Perry

Post by Phillies »

Orioles wrote:Anybody wanna rank all the countries in the World Cup so I can submit it at work into our World Cup pool?
I'll second this request.
User avatar
Nationals
Posts: 1848
Joined: Thu Jun 30, 2016 8:00 am
Location: West Hartford, CT
Name: Ian Schnaufer

Post by Nationals »

I'm agnostic about leaving Donovan off the squad--given the pool that America drew, the odds are certainly stacked against them advancing. I'll trust in Klinsmann's long view and settle down to watch some damn good soccer (the bright side of getting stuck in this group is that all of the games will at least be well-played).

And for Steven and Nick, I'll submit my totally unreliable, off-the-cuff 2014 World Cup rankings: Brazil, German, Argentina, Spain, Chile, France, Italy, Belgium, England, Uruguay, Bosnia, Portugal, Netherlands, Colombia, Ivory Coast, USA, Ghana, Russia, Ecuador, Switzerland, Mexico, Greece, Croatia, Japan, Costa Rica, Nigeria, South Korea, Cameroon, Iran, Honduras, Algeria, Australia.
User avatar
Yankees
Posts: 4249
Joined: Fri Jan 31, 2003 1:00 am
Location: Fulshear, TX
Name: Brett Zalaski
Contact:

Post by Yankees »

Those are very good rankings...I'd put US over Ivory Coast and Colombia right now. I'd put Portugal all the way ahead of England given a moderately healthy Ronaldo.

I don't think I'd bump Belgium a ton, but they are a sleeper winner for me (generally getting between 13/1 & 22/1 odds). They are quality front to back.
User avatar
Astros
Posts: 2977
Joined: Mon Apr 01, 2002 1:00 am
Location: PHX
Name: Ty Bradley

Post by Astros »

User avatar
Nationals
Posts: 1848
Joined: Thu Jun 30, 2016 8:00 am
Location: West Hartford, CT
Name: Ian Schnaufer

Post by Nationals »

Nationals wrote:Those are very good rankings...I'd put US over Ivory Coast and Colombia right now. I'd put Portugal all the way ahead of England given a moderately healthy Ronaldo.

I don't think I'd bump Belgium a ton, but they are a sleeper winner for me (generally getting between 13/1 & 22/1 odds). They are quality front to back.
I know, I know...England is the Lucy of soccer. They should be lower, given their track record, but this could be the year that they don't act like the FIFA version of the Minnesota Vikings. And looking back, I think I'd flip France and Belgium.
User avatar
BlueJays
Posts: 2209
Joined: Tue Oct 13, 2009 1:00 pm
Location: Johnston, RI
Name: David Taylor

Post by BlueJays »

I submitted my rankings. I took Andrew's original rankings, moved the US ahead of Ivory Coast and Colombia and then flipped France and Belgium.

The way it works is we just rank the teams and then there's some complex formula the ranking go into to determine points.
"Hating the Yankees is as American as pizza pie, unwed mothers, and cheating on your income tax."
User avatar
Nationals
Posts: 1848
Joined: Thu Jun 30, 2016 8:00 am
Location: West Hartford, CT
Name: Ian Schnaufer

Post by Nationals »

Orioles wrote:I submitted my rankings. I took Andrew's original rankings, moved the US ahead of Ivory Coast and Colombia and then flipped France and Belgium.

The way it works is we just rank the teams and then there's some complex formula the ranking go into to determine points.
So, when you win, do I get a cut?
User avatar
BlueJays
Posts: 2209
Joined: Tue Oct 13, 2009 1:00 pm
Location: Johnston, RI
Name: David Taylor

Post by BlueJays »

I'll send you a high quality Prince Fielder Tigers jersey
"Hating the Yankees is as American as pizza pie, unwed mothers, and cheating on your income tax."
User avatar
BlueJays
Posts: 2209
Joined: Tue Oct 13, 2009 1:00 pm
Location: Johnston, RI
Name: David Taylor

Post by BlueJays »

Here's the average ranking out of the pool of 25 ppl we have at work:

Brazil, Argentina, Germany, Spain, France, Netherlands, England, Italy, Columbia, Portugal, Uruguay, Belgium, Russia, Mexico, USA, Switzerland, Chile, Ecuador, Greece, Croatia, Bosnia, Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Japan, Ghana, S. Korea, Cameroon, Costa Rica, Australia, Honduras, Algeria, Iran

A little excel work shows the biggest discrepancy between my (our) rankings and the average in the pool is Chile, Bosnia, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Mexico, Netherlands.

Based on the scoring system, most points will be made in later rounds, so I don't think any of those teams will make huge impacts. At the top 4, only Germany and Argentina are swapped, which is kind of surprising because I work at a German company and there's a bunch of Germans who filled out rankings.
User avatar
Yankees
Posts: 4249
Joined: Fri Jan 31, 2003 1:00 am
Location: Fulshear, TX
Name: Brett Zalaski
Contact:

Post by Yankees »

This is pretty cool...New York Times does some good soccer stuff.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/11/upsho ... =eta1&_r=3
User avatar
Guardians
Posts: 4584
Joined: Sun Jan 29, 2012 1:00 am
Location: Tallahassee, FL
Name: Pat Gillespie

Post by Guardians »

Nationals wrote:This is pretty cool...New York Times does some good soccer stuff.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/11/upsho ... =eta1&_r=3
We are prideful and unmatched in how hated we are. USA! USA! USA!
User avatar
BlueJays
Posts: 2209
Joined: Tue Oct 13, 2009 1:00 pm
Location: Johnston, RI
Name: David Taylor

Post by BlueJays »

Pretty amazed that England is that disinterested in soccer. I'd guess Formula 1 is probably the top brand there, but I can't imagine any of rugby, crickett, tennis, etc. would rank ahead of soccer for sports.
"Hating the Yankees is as American as pizza pie, unwed mothers, and cheating on your income tax."
User avatar
BlueJays
Posts: 2209
Joined: Tue Oct 13, 2009 1:00 pm
Location: Johnston, RI
Name: David Taylor

Post by BlueJays »

Pretty good essay on how this World Cup is a test for American soccer fans
http://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle ... story.html

Some very good points there. I think increasing the accessibility of european premier leagues has really helped soccer grow and will help MLS grow as more people are interested in the sport in general. I think the most important point is that elitist soccer die-hards need to cool it. You will never build up a fan base if you continue to alienate new-comers. We're essentially an expansion team. Sure, US Soccer has been around for over 100 years, but we're just now building up a fan base and we've never had any real success. Other countries can rip on us for not being as passionate as they are, but you know what? They can fuck themselves. They're like the asshole Red Wings fans that were giving me shit for being a fan of the Blues, a team that wasn't even an original 6 team and has never won a Stanley Cup. Somehow that makes them better than me? Hockey can't survive without all the non-original 6 cities that are involved, just like soccer can't be the world's sport if everybody outside of England, Germany, France, Spain, Brazil, Italy, Argentina stopped paying attention. It would just be Western Europe and South America and really no bigger than baseball.

I think it will be good for the sport and the program to see some minor success from the young squad Juergen Klinsmann has assembled. There's a lot of great talent in this group we'll see again in 4 years, and in a generation obsessed with baseball prospects and college football recruits, I think the US will enjoy following the growth of the program and the individuals.

A random point: It's super annoying when people try to correct us by saying that soccer is football and it's dumb that our American football doesn't even involve feet. Alright, if you really want to pull out that stupid card, do you know the origin of the words "football" and "soccer"? Football simply refers to sports played on foot, as opposed to polo, a sport more fitting for the upper class. What the world knows as "football" was specifically called "soccer" in England to distinguish it from other forms of football, such as rugby. That's the word that came across the ocean with us. Soccer became the most popular form of football in England so it took on the name football.
"Hating the Yankees is as American as pizza pie, unwed mothers, and cheating on your income tax."
User avatar
Yankees
Posts: 4249
Joined: Fri Jan 31, 2003 1:00 am
Location: Fulshear, TX
Name: Brett Zalaski
Contact:

Post by Yankees »

It was great last night...what an awesome win. People can boo hoo whatever they want, and it certainly wasn't pretty or without potential rough side effects, but that was a perfect scenario for US Soccer with everyone who was watching. I was in Brooklyn with a friend who used to work at the Crew with me, and while we were talking throughout the game, we had 7 people who weren't familiar with soccer who came over and asked a question or two.

"Who on that team plays in the US?"
"Is there a team near us?"
"If they tie, do they go to overtime?"
"Is that Bradley kid the Bradley coach's son?"
"Who on Ghana is good?"
Etc.

Winning with a goal at the death, with all the chips down, from an unlikely hero, was just perfect for the continued elevation of this sport...and it's great that the MLS representation on this year's team is so strong (regardless of how bad Michael Bradley played last night...woof!).
User avatar
BlueJays
Posts: 2209
Joined: Tue Oct 13, 2009 1:00 pm
Location: Johnston, RI
Name: David Taylor

Post by BlueJays »

Very good win, and after the last 2 WC's, I'm not going to complain at all about how pretty the game was.

An article about who is "Soccer City, USA"
http://worldcup.usatoday.com/2014/06/15 ... -city-usa/

The bit about Seattle is super annoying. "Oooo we're soooo European!" Well guess what, asshole, this is AMERICA. Essentially you're saying "We have no idea what to do here, so we're just going to do what Europeans do." Try building your own damn tradition. If it ends up being similar to what Europeans do, cool, but make it your own.

I have wondered why MLS has avoided St. Louis for so long. That's my main reason for not following the league. St. Louis has a great soccer heritage and every time MLS says they're deciding on which city to expand into next, St. Louis begs for a team.
"Hating the Yankees is as American as pizza pie, unwed mothers, and cheating on your income tax."
User avatar
BlueJays
Posts: 2209
Joined: Tue Oct 13, 2009 1:00 pm
Location: Johnston, RI
Name: David Taylor

Post by BlueJays »

So after each team has played a game, I currently am 7th place out of 25 people who submitted rankings at work. I have 344 points. 1st place has 354.5, last has 305.

Sounds like Jozy will be out for the rest of group play, but I also hear given suspensions and injuries that Portugal has, their D will be slower, and AJ might be a better option than Jozy for that match anyway. Eitherway, Sunday will be huge. Come out with at least 1 point and we should have a good shot at advancing. Simulations currently have the US at a 63% chance of advancing.
"Hating the Yankees is as American as pizza pie, unwed mothers, and cheating on your income tax."
User avatar
BlueJays
Posts: 2209
Joined: Tue Oct 13, 2009 1:00 pm
Location: Johnston, RI
Name: David Taylor

Post by BlueJays »

Ok, kind of a slow morning, so I did some quick excel stuff because excel is fun.

ESPN has a an offensive and defensive rating for each team. It appears for offense, the higher the number, the better, defense, the lower the better.

The US is 2.10 Off, 0.98 Def. Portugal is 2.04, 0.91. Germany is 3.28, 0.69.

It also appears 30% of international matches have ended in a draw over the past some amount of time (courtesy of a quick google search, so I dunno if that's accurate).

For the US vs. Portugal, I took the US's Offense index and multiplied it by Portugal's Defense index. Then I took that value and divided it by the average Offense/Defense ratio (using each team's indices). I'll call this the US's strength index against Portugal. For the US, it's 0.69, for Portugal it's 0.72. I then multiplied each index by a random number between 0-1 20,000 times. I compared the values of each time. If the difference was in the bottom 35%, that results in a US loss. If it's in the middle 30%, draw, top 35%, win. I did this again for US-Germany.

The Results:
US-Portugal: 25% chance of US victory, 50% chance of a draw, 25% chance of a loss
US-Germany: 9% chance of a US victory, 33% chance of a draw, 58% chance of a loss

So the most likely outcome appears a draw against Portugal and a loss against Germany. That leaves the US at 4 points. Ghana isn't likely to beat Germany or Portugal, so really as long as the US can hold close with Germany (and I think being the last game of pool play Germany will be a little less fierce), they stand a decent chance of advancing to the next round.
User avatar
BlueJays
Posts: 2209
Joined: Tue Oct 13, 2009 1:00 pm
Location: Johnston, RI
Name: David Taylor

Post by BlueJays »

Alright, I tweeked the spreadsheet some and now it comes out to:
US-Portugal, 19.6% chance of winning, 57.4% chance of draw, 23.0% chance of losing
US-Germany, 4.3% chance of winning, 43.4% chance of draw, 52.3% chance of losing

I simmed the whole tournament, I have Brazil beating Germany, Argentina beating Spain, and then Argentina beating Brazil.
"Hating the Yankees is as American as pizza pie, unwed mothers, and cheating on your income tax."
User avatar
Guardians
Posts: 4584
Joined: Sun Jan 29, 2012 1:00 am
Location: Tallahassee, FL
Name: Pat Gillespie

Post by Guardians »

It's not World Cup "discussion" when you're the only person commenting on it. Someone else must care. Z, anything to add?
User avatar
BlueJays
Posts: 2209
Joined: Tue Oct 13, 2009 1:00 pm
Location: Johnston, RI
Name: David Taylor

Post by BlueJays »

I have discussions with myself all the time. It's a staple of the engineer lifestyle.
"Hating the Yankees is as American as pizza pie, unwed mothers, and cheating on your income tax."
User avatar
Nationals
Posts: 1848
Joined: Thu Jun 30, 2016 8:00 am
Location: West Hartford, CT
Name: Ian Schnaufer

Post by Nationals »

I'd just like to thank Spain for making Italy's 2010 flameout look like positively resolute stand by a defending champion...


(barring 2 goals scored in the next 18 minutes, which does not look all taht likely)
User avatar
Athletics
Posts: 1870
Joined: Fri May 21, 2010 1:00 am
Location: San Diego, CA
Name: Stephen d'Esterhazy

Post by Athletics »

Orioles wrote:I have discussions with myself all the time. It's a staple of the engineer lifestyle.
This is very true...though most of the time it is because we want to be right and everyone else is wrong :)

Does that spreadsheet account for intangibles like injuries or yellow cards?
"My shit doesn't work in the playoffs. My job is to get us to the playoffs. What happens after that is fucking luck."

LAA 11 - 15 331W - 479L
LAA 16 - 20 477W - 333L 17-20 ALW
OAK 21 - 22 214W - 110L 21-22 ALW
Post Reply

Return to “Orioles”