IBC Tigers Top 10 Prospects - BA Style

[Rangers]

(On the player rankings, I'm going with average rankings for the most part, but with a few exceptions for guys I really think are underrated. And 11-30 are very loosely ordered.)

SYSTEM OVERVIEW

The Tigers’ transformation from a AAAA team to a potential contender over the past 15 months has come at a price for the system that was the IBC’s best two years ago. Even since last spring, after the majority of the system was already deforested, the Tigers have dealt off quality prospect after quality prospect for veterans to bolster the big league club. Those more recent casualties include Jake McGee, Andrew McCutchen, Martin Perez, Jarrod Parker, Daniel Cortes, Tyler Flowers, Chris Perez and Jose Ceda, all of whom are Top 100 caliber prospects. The present state contains a hanful of infield prospects, most of whom are still projects, but a bevy of second tier pitching prospects - 26 of them to be exact. After Matt Wieters there are no elite prospects, and the vast majority of the arms appear around the back end or just outside of their MLB systems’ top tens. That makes the upcoming season a huge one for the IBC Tigers organization, as the internal thought is that a good number of these arms are on the verge of taking a step forward. If that is correct, Detroit could be a force in the IBC soon. If not, the Tigers will toil indefinitely just outside of the playoff picture.

BEST TOOLS

Best Hitter for Average - Matt Wieters
Best Power Hitter - Matt Wieters
Best Strike-Zone Discipline - Matt Wieters
Fastest Baserunner - Jonathan Galvez
Best Athlete - Hector Gomez
Best Fastball - Vince Mazzaro
Best Curveball - Kelvin de la Cruz
Best Slider - TJ House
Best Changeup - Wilkins de la Rosa
Best Control - Wilfredo Boscan
Best Defensive Catcher - Matt Wieters
Best Defensive Infielder - Hector Gomez
Best Infield Arm - Hector Gomez
Best Defensive Outfielder - Leonard Davis
Best Outfield Arm - Leonard Davis

PROJECTED 2012 LINEUP

Catcher - Matt Wieters
First Base - Miguel Cabrera
Second Base - Chase Utley
Third Base - Alex Gordon
Shortstop - Jose Reyes
Left Field - Matt Holliday
Center Field - Chris Young
Right Field - Kosuke Fukudome
Designated Hitter - Prince Fielder
No. 1 Starter - Yovani Gallardo
No. 2 Starter - James Shields
No. 3 Starter - Roy Oswalt
No. 4 Starter - Charlie Morton
No. 5 Starter - Ethan Martin
Closer - Joe Nathan

PREVIOUS TOP PROSPECTS

Year Player, Position
2005 - James Loney, 1B
2006 - Jeremy Hermida, RF
2007 - Alex Gordon, 3B
2008 - Matt Wieters, C

SCOUTING REPORTS FOR TOP TEN PROSPECTS

1. MATT WIETERS, C

Couple near gold glove caliber catching and prototypical intangibles with what Jim Callis called Mark Teixeira caliber offensive ability. Nuff said.

2. ETHAN MARTIN, RHP

The 18th pick in the 2008 IBC draft, Martin’s name is a bit more recognizable than some of the other pitching prospects lower on this list. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus recently ranked him a four star player (equivalent of a top 100 prospect) and the best prospect in the Dodgers system. He will most likely open the season in full season Low A. Goldstein: “Martin has everything one looks for in a young pitching prospect. He has smooth mechanics, and effortlessly pitches at 92-94 mph while touching 96, and many believe there is projection for much more. Unlike most teenagers, he already has solid secondary offerings, with a hard-breaking power curve and a surprisingly deceptive change. He's a fantastic athlete with a strong durable build, and scouts rave about his makeup.”

3. VINCE MAZZARO, RHP

An IBC Tigers draft pick three years ago, Mazzaro is a typical power sinker guy, but he also showed improved command of the pitch in 2008 as well as more potential on his other pitches. Baseball America ranked him as the 4th best prospect in the Texas League and 8th in the stacked A’s system. He ranked ahead of five players who will be in BA’s Top 100 on the TL list. I had the opportunity to watch him pitch this year and was very impressed with his demeanor and how dominant that sinker was. Ben Badler saw pretty much what I did: “Mazzaro's hard sinker sits in the low 90s (92-93) and touches 95, generating groundballs. He pitches off his fastball, and he shows the ability to sink, run or cut it. His control got significantly better in 2008, allowing him to keep hitters off balance by mixing locations and changing planes. He showed a greater willingness to challenge hitters than he had in the past. His improved slider has tight break and is an average pitch.” Continued development of his changeup is the last key for Mazzaro as he starts the year in the PCL.

4. ADYS PORTILLO, RHP

I've gone ahead and given him a bump, as he's seen some top 100 lists, including BP's. Pads love his overall package. He should see the US this summer.

5. MICHAEL PINEDA, RHP

Pineda is ranked higher here in relation to these players than where BA or (most likely) BP would have him. I give him a bump for what I see as more than what meets the eye for some evaluators. He has a delivery with deception, a changeup that is regarded as above average, and a low 90s fastball with both excellent movement and command. The big knock is that he hasn’t shown much feel for his curveball, and without that he’s a reliever. But here’s the thing, he was 19 this year. He jumped from the DSL to full season ball at that age, and as a Dominican, he has been taught to develop his fastball and change first. At 6-5 and with a projectable frame, he has a lot of time to work on that pitch and possibly add a little more velocity. Pineda’s numbers have been outstanding across the board, but most impressive might have been the way he finished his 2008 season. In his August/September starts (6 of them) his line was 39.1 IP, 24 H, 2 HR, 3 BB, 47 K. That is just nasty. He’ll open in High A as a 20 year old.

6. KELVIN DE LA CRUZ, LHP

De La Cruz is five months older than Pineda and has eight High A starts under his belt. He was similarly dominant in Low A, though he didn’t show quite the K/BB ratio that Pineda did. He’s also 6-5 and under 200 lbs and is considered to have a good deal of projection left in him. BA ranked him 7th in the Indians system. Badler: “[De La Cruz] touches 93-94 with his four-seam fastball. He's still growing and getting stronger, so he could add more velocity. His best pitch is his 75-77 mph curveball, which has two-plane depth and neutralizes lefties and righties. He also mixes in a two-seam fastball with good sink and a changeup that shows promise.” De La Cruz figures to return to High A as a 20 year old and is likely to see AA before his 21st birthday. He’s the only established left handed prospect in this system who projects as a starter.

7. CARLOS RIVERO, SS

Like Pineda I rank him a little higher here than you might see him in some publications this winter. BA ranks him 10th in the Cleveland system and Badler says: “As his frame continues to fill out, his power should continue to grow. He has a sound swing that generates plenty of bat speed, and he is a good athlete. Defensively, he offers soft hands and a strong arm.” If he’s going to be able to stick at shortstop he’ll be one of those modern style guys. He is often compared with Jhonny Peralta, though there could be even a little more bat in him. He really adjusted to High A in the second half, hitting .300/ .371/.474 with seven of his home runs (213 AB) and improving his BB/SO ratio to 24/37. He will open next season as a AA shortstop at age 20, and we’ll see if he can continue his trend of steady improvement at each new level and more specifically whether the power that started to appear in games late in 2008 shows consistently in 2009.

8. HECTOR GOMEZ, SS

Courtesy of a Jagger roster jam this slick shortstop is reunited with his initial IBC organization. 2008 was largely a lost season for Gomez, who was a Top 100 prospect in 2008 before his injuries limited him to one measly game. He has a lot of natural talent both offensively and defensively, but he also has holes. His plate discipline has a ways to go, and his aggressive style has helped lead to the injuries of last season. Kevin Goldstein: "Gomez has prototypical shortstop tools. Long, loose and wiry, he has good speed, instincts, and range to go along with soft hands and a very good arm. He has a good feel for contact at the plate and a surprising amount of pop that allows for a projection of 12-15 home runs annually…Perfect World Projection: He's an above-average big-league starting shortstop.” Gomez will return to High A next season.

9. HECTOR RONDON, RHP

My opinion of Rondon went way up after watching him pitch in the Futures Game this year. He is by no means a finished product, but he has easy 94-95 mph gas with a good delivery and nice arm action, and the fact that his secondary stuff seems to be improving quickly, while he puts up good numbers at a good ARL, all bodes well. BA ranked him as the 9th best prospect in the Carolina League. Josh Leventhal: “Rondon had one of the more electric arms in the league, overpowering hitters primarily with a 92-95 mph fastball that seemed to gain extra life as it exploded out of his long, wiry frame. He showed an ability to locate his heater to both sides of the plate while featuring armside run and sink…The improvement [over the course of the season] was a credit to the development of his secondary pitches, a hard-breaking curveball and a serviceable changeup. He does a good job of attacking the strike zone.” I’m anxious to see what Rondon does in AA at age 21.

10. WILKINS DE LA ROSA, LHP

As JB knows, de la Rosa might be my favorite prospect on my team. He’s an OF convert who just keeps getting better and better on the mound - and fast. His conversion started (in game competition anyway) in the GCL in 2007, where he pitched successfully out of the pen. He was bumped to the SAL to start 2008 and eventually joined the rotation, where his numbers actually improved. He finished in High A, where he produced three fairly dominant starts. His season turned out to be one of the better ones in the minors this year, as Goldstein’s simple “missed bats” metric indicated. The top three on this list were Madison Bumgarner, Tommy Hanson and Neftali Feliz. Number four? Wilkins. It’s his stuff that makes him intriguing, of course, as George King mentioned in the fall: “The 6-foot-1, 185-pound lefthander improved so much in 2008 that the Yankees will add his 94-95 mph fastball and outstanding changeup to their 40-man roster.” "If he makes the same kind of improvement in 2009 that he made this year he will be close (to the big leagues)," [farm director Mark] Newman said. "He could come fast because of his stuff and he has a good delivery." Indications are that he may start the season in AA, and his primary tasks will be continuing the improved command and control that he showed as a starter in 2008 and continuing to improve his curveball.

11. HENRY SOSA, RHP

Sosa had an injury plagued season, though he did at least avoid any serious or future altering knocks. When he’s right, his stuff is nasty, as BA chronicled, “Sosa's pitches consistently in the mid-90s and tops out at 97 mph with his fastball. His hard curveball is a strikeout pitch. He repeats his delivery well while throwing from a high three-quarters slot…If Sosa can harness his stuff, his upside is huge.” That didn’t happen much with his nagging troubles in 2008, so 2009 becomes a big year for him. With 26 Cal League starts under his belt, AA may almost come as a relief to Sosa.

12. BUD NORRIS, RHP - Big arm, I wish that Houston would just accept him as a late reliever, but some observers see a mid-roto type.
13. WILFREDO BOSCAN, RHP - BA ranks him #11 in an extremely deep system. Combines major polish with talent and some extra projection. Watch out for him in ’09.
14. DAE-EUN RHEE, RHP - Excellent debut before TJ set him back. Showed three solid pitches. Should pitch by midseason.
15. DARYL THOMPSON, RHP - I think he’s a major league pitcher, but I’m not sure he’s a starter.
16. JOSE CASILLA RHP - I’m cautiously excited about this guy. Little brother of Santiago has the same arm but superior control.
17. SHAIRON MARTIS, RHP - Scouts don’t think a lot of him, but he keeps succeeding at a very young age and his arm isn’t bad.
18. KELVIN HERRERA, RHP - Has excelled at every level in pro ball so far, has terrific feel similar to Boscan and mixes a nasty low-mid 90s fastball with a quality curveball. JJ Cooper of BA in picking Herrera as the breakout prospect in the KC system: "There are few pitchers in the system with a higher ceiling than Herrera...is on the way to making a name for himself."
19. MIKAEL CLETO, RHP - Huge fastball, not much else as of yet. Regarded as the key prospect in the Putz deal.
20. ESMIL ROGERS, RHP - Ranked 7th in the Rockies system by BA, Rogers is a pretty typical infield convert with good stuff and athleticism.
21. CHRISTIAN GARCIA RHP - Not ashamed to say that I’m really crossing my fingers here. Healthy again and really started to come around late in the season.
22. TJ HOUSE, LHP - Everyone expected him to be one of these guys who becomes an elite arm as a college lefty. Tribe just hauled off and signed him.
23. RYAN CHAFFEE, RHP - Probably more anxious to see his 2009 than any of the others. Very intriguing game and the Halos love him.
24. QUINTON MILLER, RHP - Talented teen with an explosive fastball/curveball combo to build from.
25. TREY HALEY, RHP - At times was the premier HS arm in the country in 2008 and is a year young for his class. Good candidate for extended, then short season ball.
26. GUILLERMO MOSCOSO, RHP - Came on like gangbusters this season as one of the most dominant pitchers in the minors. I like him as a reliever, but Texas will start him.
27. DANNY FARQUHAR, RHP - Nasty low arm angle guy. I anticipate a fast rise, and Neshek comps abound.
28. CORD PHELPS, 2B - Could be a fast moving offensive 2B. Switch hitter.
29. LEONARD DAVIS, 2B/3B/OF - What this guy did at A+ and AA was - to steal a line from Randy Marsh - startling. AAA, not so much. 2009 will tell a lot.
30. AARON KING, LHP - Alex Eisenberg seems to like him. He was one of the best lefty arms in the draft with mid-90s velocity and seemed to adjust well to pro ball. I wonder if his JC competition didn’t get him lost in the shuffle.