Goldstein on missing bats

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Goldstein on missing bats

Post by Rangers »

According to the Missed Bats Number calculation that Goldstein likes to use, here were the five best prospect pitchers in that regard. It looks like a pretty good metric, considering who found themselves at the top:
1. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Giants

Stats: +32 at Low-A (141.2-111-21-164); MBR: 0.23

As if one needed it, here is further evidence that last year's first-round pick has established himself as one of the top pitching prospects in the game. Two aspects of Bumgarner's game well exceeded expectations coming into the year. His command improved dramatically when, instead of worrying about Bumgarner's natural three-quarters arm slot, the Giants instead simply worked on helping him find a consistent angle with it to enable him to throw more strikes. Beyond the wild success seen in his strike-throwing ability, his breaking ball went from a slurvy, looping offering to a real power downer that flashes plus at times, and shows the potential to become a big-league out pitch. Add that to this lefty's plus to plus-plus velocity, and he has true impact potential.

2. Tommy Hanson, RHP, Braves

Stats: +23 at High-A (40-15-11-49); +3 at Double-A (98-70-41-114); MBR: 0.19

Even beyond his amazing start to the season and the no-hitter in the Southern League, Hanson was one of the most dominant pitchers in the minors this year, and it seems as if he's flying under the radar a bit; when it comes to any discussion of the top pitching prospects in the game, he's not in it. That's hard to understand, as the stuff matches the stats, with his fastball, curve, slider, and changeup all rating as above average in the eyes of scouts.

3. Neftali Feliz, RHP, Rangers

Stats: +23 at Low-A (82-55-28-106); -10 at Double-A (45.1-34-23-47); MBR: 0.10

While he had a slightly negative number at Double-A mostly due to some command issues, Feliz remains one of the most dominant arms in the minors, and more than held his own in the Texas League as a 20-year-old. He's still doing it mostly on the strength of an upper-90s fastball that grades up even more because of its movement and location, but he did make process with his secondary pitches as well, flashing a plus slider and much improved changeup as the season wore on.

4. Wilkins De La Rosa, LHP, Yankees

Stats: +11 at Low-A (90.1-60-39-110); -2 at High-A (16.1-12-5-15); MBR: 0.08

There's a good chance that De La Rosa is the first player on this list you haven't heard of, but you should, because he's probably the best sleeper in the Yankees system. Originally signed six years ago out of the Dominican Republic as an outfielder, De La Rosa didn't covert to pitching until last year after batting .224/.353/.287 in 287 minor league games. He began the year in the Low-A Charleston bullpen, but the 23-year-old moved to the rotation in the second half of the season and continued to dominate while impressing scouts with a low-90s fastball, average slider, and plus changeup. He has some chance to remain a starter, and many believe that at the very least he'll be a solid lefty reliever in the big leagues.

5. Trevor Cahill, RHP, Athletics

Stats: +21 at High-A (87.1-52-31-103); -10 at Double-A (37-24-19-33); MBR: 0.08

Let's not forget about Cahill, who didn't pitch after late July due to his Olympic commitment. He was the most dominant pitcher in the California League during the first half of the season, and took only a small step backwards after moving up to Double-A. He's one of those pitchers that are hard to rank because he doesn't have All-Star stuff, but it's still awfully good, with a plus fastball and curve. While it's hard to see an impact ceiling, it's also impossible to see him as anything less than a third starter, the kind of projection that is rarely guaranteed for a 20-year-old.
That's five excellent pitching prospects.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... cleid=8147
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Post by Rangers »

As a follow-up, here are the Tigers leaders among starters and relievers (MBN, MBR)

Starting Pitchers

1. Guillermo Moscoso: +41, 0.47 (86.2 IP, 60 H, 21 BB, 122 K)

Was Moscoso the most dominant SP in the minors? Those HA/AA numbers blow the leaders away, just missed some time early in the season.

2. Wilkins de la Rosa: +9, 0.08 (106.2 IP, 72 H, 44 BB, 125 K)

Relieved some and started some, major sleeper as Goldstein mentioned.

3. Wilfredo Boscan: -7, -0.10 (69.1 IP, 66 H, 11 BB, 70 K)

Pitched in the NWL at age 18 and showed a nice FB/curve combo and a dominant K/BB.

4. Michael Pineda: -16, -0.12 (138.1 IP, 109 H, 35 BB, 128 K)

Really impressive for a 19 year old in full season ball, excellent FB with command and improved as the season went on, ending with a 9 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 14 K game.


Relief Pitchers

1. Tony Sipp: +12, 0.36 ( 33.2 IP, 23 H, 11 BB, 46 K)

Nice comeback season from TJ surgery, started a little slow at AA but really came on and saw velocity return.
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