Santana

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Santana

Post by Royals »

Here's something I don't get. I don't have a problem with any of the offers the Sox have made for Santana. The potential of having Santana, Beckett and Dice-K at the front of the rotation is intoxicating.
The thing is though, I'm kind of surprised the Sox aren't offering Buchholz instead of Ellsbury. I think both have loads of potential, but the Sox have more depth among the SP's. If we keep Buchholz and Lester, we've got Santana, Beckett, Daisuke, Schilling, Wakefield, Lester, Buchholz going into this season. Seven starters who deserve to start? Tucking one (probably Buchholz) away in AAA until Schilling retires is fine, but there's still 6 starters for five spots.
The Sox and Yankees have been playing a game of one-upmanship to impress the Twins. At this pointI kind of wonder if maybe the Sox are more interested in dealing Buchholz, but by making him the LAST guy they're willing to offer, they increase his perceived value. If Boston is least willing to part with Buchholz, does that increase his perceived value to the Twins in the trade discussions?
Just something to think about.
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Post by Orioles »

I don't think they want to count on Wakefield being a productive starter, either this year or next year. Not that it can't happen, but I'm sure that they'd prefer to have him in the pen. Also, despite his fantastic performance in the postseason, Ellsbury is at the absolute peak of his value. I think he'll be an excellent player but, from a cost standpoint, if both players pan out and reach what scouts think is their "ceiling," then having a front of the rotation SP at Buchholz's price is much more valuable than having a leadoff/CF/speed guy at Ellsbury's price. No doubt the possibility of having a Santana, Beckett, Matsuzaka, Lester, Buchholz rotation for the next five years is pretty attractive.

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Post by Royals »

Ia gree, Wakefield probably is the wid card in there, though as a #5 starter, he's far from a bad option.
I also agree on Ellsbury and was telling a friend of mine who's less into baseball the exact same thing. The difference in Ellsbury's perceived and actual values right now is pretty high. The ability to fill multiple positional needs for the Twins is also an issue. they've got tons of young SP, what they need more are solid position players.
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Post by Orioles »

Yeah, that's not a knock on Wakefield at all. If somebody were to go down, he's more than capable as a #5. In my mind, he has the most value as kind of an innings-eating insurance policy capable of switching from SP to RP and back more easily than typical SP. Just having him available to change things up out of the pen would be pretty interesting. How about having to face Beckett's fastball, followed by Wake's knuckler, then the crazy delivery of the Okie-doke, followed by Papelbon's fastball.

As you said, I think the fact that the Twins have multiple positional needs helps the Red Sox put together a package more than the Yankees, b/c if the Twins think the central pieces offered by the Sox and Yanks are fairly equivalent, Boston can still offer Jed Lowrie, who's an MLB-ready middle infielder. That's something the Yankees just don't have in the upper levels of their minors right now.

I still think he'll end up in NY b/c I don't believe the ultimatums they're throwing out there. Everybody knows it would be far more devastating to NY for Santana to end up in Boston than it would be for the Red Sox if he ends up a Yankee (especially given the pieces they'll have to move to get it done). The Yankees simply can't afford for the Red Sox to have both Beckett and Santana at the front of their rotation. The fact that Santana would be quite a weapon against the extremely lefty-heavy NY lineup is something not lost on Yankees brass, I'm sure.

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Post by Royals »

I agree, the Yankees need Santana more than Boston does. By a fair amount. That said, I'd take him in an instant.

The thing about Wakefield is, I think the Sox brass really appreciate the gesture he made in signing the contract he did and want to keep him in the rotation as long as possible to show that appreciation.
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Post by Yankees »

HA - that's hilarious. Theo has done a wonderful job of showing there's no real allegiance in baseball (truly both ways). They're not gonna keep Wake in the rotation at the expense of upgrading him and using him as floater.

If you think the latter you are only kidding yourself...
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Post by Royals »

I disagree.
When it comes to players with real character, Epstein has shown a lot of allegiance and appreciation. Look at Varitek and Lowell. Did he let the likes of Damon and Pedro walk? Sure. But Damon was unquestionably a mercenary, anyone who took even the briefest glimpse at his personal life knew he was a person of at least questionable character who was looking out for one person and one person only. Pedro much less so, but he wanted his payday, that was his priority. Guys like Lowell, Varitek and Wakefield had remaining a Red Sox as a priority. Show loyalty to the team and the fans and the team will show loyalty to you.
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Post by Yankees »

I can only imagine that you are joking here. He paid Varitek and Lowell slightly below market value after awesome seasons when there was absolutely no one better on the market. No one could have truly seen the precipitous decline on Varitek (and he's still an above average everyday C). They both got below market deals, and took them out of loyalty to the team, not vice versa. Pedro and Damon just chose not to accept the below market deals.

If you think the Red Sox have made this anything above a business, you are just crazy. Lowell was OPENLY TALKING TO THE YANKEES, and when the Yanks got A-Rod back and pulled their offer on Lowell the 1b, only then did he go back to the Sox.
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Post by Pirates »

id have to say that sounds 100% right
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Post by Royals »

Wait, are you suggesting that a massive decline by a 32 yr old catcher following a career season wasn't kinda, sorta forseeable? 4/$40 wasn't below market at the time either, especially not for a 32 yr old catcher. The only team that Varitek was worth that much to was Boston.
And, sorry, but 12.5m/year for a 34yr old 3b with a career line of .280/.344/.468 doesn't strike me as below market, especially with the Phillies offering 4/50.
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Post by Yankees »

Well I can answer those two points easy enough:

1) We'll never have a clue on Varitek because he accepted the offer w/o talking to anyone else. With what Posada got for the season he had, if Varitek's agent was ANY good, he would have figured out a way to get him more then that...so no points awarded here...

2) Philly was the only other offer he got, and it was for more money overall, with one more year paying him $12.5 mill when he's 38. So if you don't consider that a "better" offer then the Sox, then you are absolutely, undeniably insane.

I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.
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Post by Royals »

(not sure who the last post was directed at, but a couple issues)
Right, Lowell declined a Better deal to stay in Boston. Odds on Lowell getting 12.5m when he's 38 are somewhere between slim and none.
As for varitek, comparing his deal to Posada's is probably not a good idea, it's a different market now than it was even just 3 years ago. The contracts being handed out this season or even last season would have been insane in the 04 offseason.
Please correct me if I'm wrong but weren't there aspersions of collusion that off season by the player's union?
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Post by Yankees »

So if Lowell declined a better deal to stay in Boston, how is that necessarily saying that the Red Sox reward their players? I'm totally confused...

I wasn't talking about this Posada deal dumbass, I was talking about Posada's previous deal, signed the year before Varitek. Why on earth would I mean this past one?
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Post by Orioles »

aaarrrgggh. I just wrote an extremely long and detailed post (what a surprise) about why I generally agreed with Z on this, then IE effing quit on me and I lost it. So here's another unnecessarily long post to replace that one...

Part of the Red Sox recent success has been their ability to stick to the value they assign a player for contract purposes, and to eliminate loyalty and sentimentality from the decision-making process. They realized that even if you can afford a player at market price, once his production begins to decline you might be forced to keep him in a starting role even though you'd be better off getting a younger player some experience, or pursuing a FA. They never really "lowball" their veteran FA, but just assign a value and offer it. For the sake of keeping Boston an attractive destination for potential FA, I think they make an effort to part amicably with vets when it's clear they're not willing to pay market value, and there's not really a happy medium b/w that and their internal assessment of value.

Schilling's comments during this season regarding his contract status were pretty telling. He alluded to the fact that the Sox presented and thoroughly explained exactly how they project his future performance, and the value they would place on that performance based on how it fits into the framework of their overall organizational plan. At no point did Schilling indicate that he felt he was being underappreciated, or that the Sox were being disloyal or insulting. Like other vets, he was given a choice of getting a market-value contract elsewhere, or taking less and staying. I also think it's not quite as cut-and-dried as that. At a certain point, even if the price is fair, some veteran players just might not fit into your plan. Here I think that may have been the case (w/ the Sox preferring to work their young starters into the rotation), but they probably were willing to adjust their plan based on "loyalty," etc b/c: 1) it's only for 1 year 2) having a "farewell tour" for Schilling creates good will w/ the fans, looks good to other potential FA, and offers the kind of marketing opportunities the club loves (pregame ceremonies, special Schilling memorabilia, maybe a NESN special or something).

Also, Tek's contract was pretty fair at the time. Sure, he could have squeezed them for a little more dough maybe, but it was pretty clear they needed him to stay and he wanted to stay, so he got a deal that worked for both sides.

I'm sure Lowell was presented w/ the team's assessment much like Schilling was (probably along w/ some stats showing how he'll also finish his career putting up better numbers at Fenway than anywhere else). Lowell clearly wasn't put off by their assessment of his value, and decided staying in Boston was more important than 4 years, which is pretty commendable, imo.

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Post by Royals »

Royals wrote:Why on earth would I mean this past one?
because that's the most recent one and you didn't specify which one you were talking about.
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Post by Athletics »

Guerra goes to an organization that knows how to raise a farm system. Look out for him.
"My shit doesn't work in the playoffs. My job is to get us to the playoffs. What happens after that is fucking luck."

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Post by Marlins »

To the Mets. What a bad deal for the Twins.
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Post by Athletics »

Yes sir.
"My shit doesn't work in the playoffs. My job is to get us to the playoffs. What happens after that is fucking luck."

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Post by Yankees »

Well, if Santana wasn't taking the Twins deal, then I'm not sure they were getting any better for him unless they waited until the All-Star break. This would have been an season-long disturbance hanging over their heads. Basically the team got three pretty good to good pitching prospects and one very good OF prospect. Mulvey and Humber are pretty close to MLB ready, and Guerra has a big upside. Neither the Yanks or Red Sox, especially at this point in the proceedings, were offering a package that good...

Basically the Twins overplayed their hand, and got stuck with this as the best possible deal - not great by any means, but certainly not terrible.
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Post by Royals »

Terrible? no, terrible would have been letting him walk. It's still a worse deal than either Boston or the Yanks were tossing around during the winter meeting. Humber and Mulvey may be close to MLB ready, but they aren't close to being very good and as big as Guerra's upside is, the odds of him getting there are low. Everyone wins here, Yankees, Sox, mets.... except Minnesota.
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Post by Cardinals »

Yeah but lets not forget that Minnesota doesn't have to see Johan except in inter league until the end of his career, if ever again.
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Post by Royals »

Pirates wrote:Yeah but lets not forget that Minnesota doesn't have to see Johan except in inter league until the end of his career, if ever again.
Which I beleive is why they were willing to take a lesser package from the Mets and why the Sox and Yanks were willing to let him go.
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Post by Nationals »

As a Twins fan, am I pleased with how this ended? Hell no. But as has been pointed out above, it's better than letting him walk and, who knows, something might come of these guys (a la Frank Viola to the Mets in 1989)
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