HiRes 2010

Bren Dillon's blog

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Royals
Posts: 3948
Joined: Mon Apr 01, 2002 1:00 am
Location: Englewood, FL
Name: Larry Bestwick

HiRes 2010

Post by Royals »

I've continued working on my HiRes Projections (in spite of only having access to 5 years worth of the necessary historical data). Here's my most recent pass. Once I get the rest of the data I want (which will be when DMB gets their act together and can sell season disks again) I can drop the data in and it will auto update.

Basic methodology
I begin by making the stats for each player each season as park neutral as I can. I then compile this park neutral data by age and player position to get a set of age progression numbers for each position. I then apply that to each player's production for the last three years, weighted towards the most recent.

I'm still tinkering with the ratios and a few other things. Once I get them finalized, with all the data I want incorporated, I'll make them available for public review and QA/QC of the process. Any suggestions or questions regarding the basic methodology outlined above would be welcome.

The link to the spreadsheet showing the current results is below.
https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key ... HZUE&hl=en
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