Kendry Morales

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DBacks
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Kendry Morales

Post by DBacks »

Kendry Morales (2009 MLB) - OPS+ 137
Kendry Morales (2010 ZIPS) - OPS+ 110

Kendry Morales (2009 MLB) - 34 HR
Kendry Morales (2010 ZIPS) - 21 HR

Kendry Morales (2009 MLB) - .569 SLG%
Kendry Morales (2010 ZIPS) - .485 SLG%


The point? Zips fucking blows.
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Cardinals
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Post by Cardinals »

I'm not a zips fan, but 2007 and 2008 count for something in the projections. He typically caters to the mean. I think there are a lot worse projections than what Morales wound up with, in fact that's kind of what I expected him to get.
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Post by Reds »

They may suck but at least they are consistent because they always cut back signifiantly from a high ops+ season. They hit Sandoval and several others pretty hard as well.
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Post by DBacks »

I just think its a huge flaw. I hate systems that are all computer and no human judgement. A guy has some ABs when he's 24 and 25 and figuring stuff out, and those numbers count against him once he's established himself? What I've seen searching through all these ZiPS is that young guys get screwed and veterans get the benefit of the doubt more times than not. So you end up with 33 year old OFs coming off down years that still get projections near their career norm, whereas the 26 year old with the breakout year shows regression in his projection. Drives me nuts.

I dont feel like looking up all the specifics because I'm lazy, but my point is that a breakout season from a young up-and-comer carries far less weight than a regressive season from an aging Vet. Drives me nuts.
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Post by Cardinals »

With regards to your first paragraph, if a player is coming off two lousy years and one good year, is there really much room to project progression? there's more data to suggest the player will not play well than there is that he will. one year of good data doesn't really scream more progression - two years worth of it does. So yeah, when a guy has bad at bats in his mid 20's and it's two years worth I'd fully expect that to take it's toll in the projection if it's on year 2 AND 3 in a players performance.

all projection systems are formulaic. however, both DMB and ZiPS do tinker with results a bit I think to ensure that teams sim properly. I know in 2006 DMB fooled with the White Sox and Tigers projections because the Tigers were simming too well and the defending champ White Sox not well enough. Shouldn't have tinkered with that because obviously the Tigers went to the WS that year. removing human input from the projection systems is probably the best move so you don't have clowns like Symbrowski making players on the Dodgers better, or you don't have Diamond Mind making guys like Buehrle better on the White Sox so that they sim better as a team.
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